The first message emanates from the Modi supporters' belief that their dream to see the Gujarat chief minister as India's next prime minister cannot be realised by simply relying on the BJP's current arithmetical prospects of the number of Lok Sabha seats the party can win in the 2014 elections. It is clear to them that the current poll arithmetic does not give the BJP the necessary numbers in the Lok Sabha to help the BJP form the government with Mr Modi as the leader. The number of Lok Sabha seats has to be increased to a reasonable strength with the help of what they call the "chemistry" of Mr Modi. In other words, they are relying on building up a Modi wave to get the BJP the desired strength to stake claim to form a government with their leader as the prime minister.
Two, there is a general consensus of views within the Modi camp that elections in states in the last few years have shown that Indian voters are becoming more inclined to hand out decisive mandates. Voters have given a clear verdict in favour of a party or a group to form a majority government that can then rule without compromising on governance in view of the so-called compulsions of coalition politics. What happened in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat or Karnataka proves that point quite clearly; voters in all these states have ushered in stable governments with a clear verdict. The Modi camp believes that the same will hold true for the general elections eight months from now.
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Both the messages that provide the basis for optimism in the Modi camp need further scrutiny. The first question that comes to mind is whether the two messages are somewhat contradictory. If the trend is moving towards voters opting for stable governments, then why shouldn't the same logic catapult the Modi-led BJP to the Lok Sabha to help it form a reasonably stable government at the Centre? Why would it need the Modi chemistry or a Modi wave to overcome the arithmetical obstacle of winning 273 seats in the Lok Sabha?
It is also possible that what holds true for elections to the state Assemblies may not remain equally valid for the general elections. Voters' behaviour in state polls often differs from that in general elections. Anti-incumbency will, of course, be a factor in the 2014 general elections. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government will face stiff resistance from voters after a reign of 10 long years. But then there are also exceptions to the anti-incumbency factor. Sheila Dikshit's government in Delhi, Naveen Patnaik in Odisha and Mr Modi himself in Gujarat are examples of how leaders with some display of administrative capabilities have overcome the anti-incumbency factor. The big question is whether the UPA government can emulate what Ms Dikshit, Mr Patnaik and Mr Modi have achieved in their respective states.
What is also ignored in this equation is the substantial work that the UPA government has done in vast stretches of non-urban India by boosting rural incomes through a jobs guarantee scheme, ensuring availability of food at subsidised prices and by providing better compensation to owners of land that is lost to industry or big projects. The impact of such initiatives has not yet been fully captured in the debates that take place in urban India's drawing rooms or television studios. So it is likely that the perceived advantages of anti-incumbency or the voters' preference for a decisive mandate might not be there to be reaped by those who are banking on them.
The critical question then boils down to whether the new BJP leadership can overcome the arithmetical hurdle with the help of the Modi wave. There is little doubt that the Modi wave can be a potent weapon for the BJP. Consider the manner in which Indira Gandhi won her elections in 1971 and 1980 or Rajiv Gandhi in 1984-85. These were all victories that the Congress rode on a wave. For Mr Modi to generate a similar wave, the BJP would have to think of a strategy. The Muzaffarnagar riots must have come as an opportunity for the BJP to further whip up sentiments that divide the nation and polarise votes in its favour. Development and growth could be nice slogans, but their role in creating a wave is limited.
To overcome the big arithmetical hurdle of winning the requisite number of Lok Sabha seats, therefore, the Modi camp will most likely rely on a Modi wave. How and in what manner the new BJP leadership creates that wave should be closely watched. For that would also determine to a great extent the political direction this country is going to take after 2014.