A new phase

Life has just become harder for Pakistan's president, the already embattled Pervez Musharraf. The results of the general election in Pakistan have gone along expected lines. The party that he propped up, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), has conceded defeat. Thanks in part to Benazir Bhutto's assassination and the resulting sympathy vote, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has emerged as the single largest party. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has come second. Together, the PPP and the PML (N) have a simple majority. That means they will form the government, with perhaps Asif Zardari, Benazir's husband, as prime minister. However, this will not be entirely to the liking of Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister who had defeated the PPP in 1990 and 1997 and who, after having been deposed by Mr Musharraf in a coup in 1999, spent eight years in exile. More importantly, there was the widespread belief in Pakistan that Ms Bhutto had made a deal with Mr Musharraf (perhaps at the behest of the US) and that, had she not been killed, the PML (N) and not the PPP would have emerged as the single- largest party. Nawaz Sharif, recognising immediately after the assassination that his goose was cooked, had said that he would be willing to form a government with and under anyone as long as it would see off Mr Musharraf. Most Pakistanis would also be inclined to think that way. So, Mr Zardari can pretty safely lay first claim to the job of prime minister, and he probably will. Not in his wildest dreams would he have thought that such a thing could happen.

The all-important question is whether the new government under a new prime minister will take on Mr Musharraf in a revenge game, or whether the US will force these key players to live with each other and not let their mutual dislike dictate actions. The initial signs are not promising. The subsidiary question is what kind of a coalition the PPP and PML (N) can cobble together, given the long history of antagonism to each other "" rather like the Congress and the BJP coming together. The two winners in Pakistan may be united in their dislike of Mr Musharraf, but that is not enough basis for a working relationship.

That focuses attention on the army, as also the Constitutional powers of the president and prime minister. In a sense, real power still resides in the president, that is, the head of state and not the head of government. This as well as the army's pre-eminent role binds the hands of the head of government in a way not seen in most liberal democracies. Adding to the head of government's problems are the jihadis. It is not possible to treat them as terrorists because they seem to enjoy a fairly significant amount of public support in some parts of the country, even in the army. But, as any seasoned Pakistan expert will point out, it is really the army that has to be neutralised by any civilian head of government. That has not happened till now. From time to time, the army may have made a tactical retreat but it has remained the real power in the country. With a former army chief as president, it is unlikely that its political and economic interests will be compromised. This is Pakistan's real problem, and while periodic elections there give rise to hopes of a normalisation of the political process, there is no reason to believe that this is going to happen any time soon. Therefore, while some cheering is in order, the firecrackers probably need to wait.