A rock and a hard place

Growth may need monetary stimulus, but will RBI look to rupee?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) goes into its scheduled quarterly review on Tuesday facing a delicate situation. It effectively took a monetary policy action two weeks ago, when it widened the liquidity adjustment facility corridor and restricted the banking system's access to the repo window. It followed this up last week with borrowing restrictions on individual banks, which further tightened liquidity. While the ostensible purpose of these measures, stabilising the rupee, seems to have been achieved at least for now, there may be an adverse impact of these actions on the growth-inflation balance, on which monetary policy has been focused until now. In this regard, the latest readings on core inflation and industrial production do make the case for monetary stimulus. Even if the rather worrisome rigidity in consumer price inflation is taken into account, the most hawkish recommendation would be to maintain the status quo on both policy rates and liquidity. And that was what most analysts were expecting before the actions taken over the past couple of weeks. Based on the response of market interest rates to these actions, there is little question that it has been perceived by the system as a significant tightening, with potentially negative implications for already sluggish growth.

Given this response, further tightening is clearly not on the cards for tomorrow. At worst, the status quo might be maintained. The RBI does not typically revise its growth and inflation forecasts in the first quarterly review, preferring to wait until half the year has passed. However, given the unusual context this year, it would be very helpful to stakeholders to get the RBI's assessment of the impact of its actions on growth and inflation at least, not to mention the exchange rate, interest rates, the government's overall cost of borrowing and, importantly, non-performing assets of banks. But, beyond these, the most important signals that stakeholders will be watching out for relate to the RBI's articulation of how long it expects to persevere with this new regime and what it would be watching out to feel secure enough to go back to normal. The prime minister has already said publicly that the measures are temporary, but whether the RBI will agree with this view or argue along different lines is the question.

More importantly, while this is outside the domain of the quarterly review, policy makers have to urgently come to grips with the pressures on the current account deficit, which is the fundamental cause of exchange rate problems. Absent any signs of this, the RBI's recent moves highlight the fact that the conventional growth-inflation trade-off has now morphed into a growth-exchange rate one. Monetary measures that are used to stabilise the currency are in today's scenario essentially antagonistic to stimulating growth. If the decision is indeed to give primacy to the exchange rate, the growth rate will be the obvious casualty. Notwithstanding governmental reassurances about a commitment to reviving growth, the stark fact is that it appears to have become something of an orphan as far as policy objectives are concerned. This cannot be good for anybody. The whole policy establishment must take responsibility for both growth and the exchange rate, together.