A vote for change

There is only one way to interpret what the voters have said: they want change, and will not be easily satisfied. They have decisively voted out the Vajpayee government; and they have voted against the party ruling in the states of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir and Uttaranchal.

In Maharashtra and Gujarat too, there is a clear swing in vote against the ruling party or alliance, while the same anti-incumbency swing was seen a few months ago in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

This broad trend is too obvious to be missed and is not party-specific, though it might seem that the eastern region is an exception since Assam, Orissa, Bihar and West Bengal have bucked the trend.

The truth stares us in the face: in most parts of the country, governments are simply not able to meet people's expectations, and a strong anti-incumbency factor develops.

Indeed, the number of cabinet ministers who have been humbled at the hustings adds to this story: Yashwant Sinha, Ram Naik, Jagmohan, Murli Manohar Joshi, C P Thakur, Nitish Kumar, Shahnawaz Hussein, Sahib Singh Verma... It is almost as though the electorate wanted to send out a very specific message rejecting those who had been in office.

Many of the other explanations for an unexpected electoral result, which none of the many opinion polls and exit polls forecast, do not stand scrutiny.

It is argued in somewhat facile fashion, for instance, that this is a vote where Bharat is sending a message to those enjoying that part of India which is "Shining"; but then the NDA has been swept out in both Mumbai and Delhi, while the BJP has done very well in many backward, rural constituencies, both tribal and non-tribal.

In any case, if indeed Bharat is not shining, that message should be taken to mean that reform should begin in agriculture. This too is really a message asking for change.

The vote is a personal triumph for Sonia Gandhi, who faced criticism on account of her Italian birth and whose party, L K Advani had forecast, would not even get to the three-figure mark.

The electoral result makes it quite clear that, for most people, Sonia Gandhi is now an Indian and, as the leader of the largest party in Parliament, has certainly earned the right to lead the country.

Ms Gandhi assumed the leadership of the Congress when it seemed to be disintegrating, and though she managed to lead the party to several assembly victories, she had so far not managed a national triumph. That too is now hers.

It would therefore be churlish (and counter-productive) on the part of her allies to now make an issue of her birth, when the voters have already spoken on the issue.

This is almost certainly the end of the road for Mr Vajpayee. He will rue the one decision that has probably turned this election: dumping the DMK in favour of Ms Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu. With Mr Karunanidhi in the NDA, it would almost certainly have won more seats than the Congress-led alliance.

But he has had a successful six years as prime minister, 79 is not too early to fade into the sunset, and so he is unlikely to lead the BJP in the next election.

Mr Advani is of a similar vintage. Before long the BJP will have to address the issue of a change of guard at the top, and bring in a younger leadership.