Aditi Phadnis: Apples versus oranges

PLAIN POLITICS

The support to the growers of two crops often decides who wins in Himachal.

The results of the 68-member Himachal Pradesh Assembly are out. The Bharatiya Janata Party had announced well before the election that Prem Kumar Dhumal would be its chief ministerial candidate. One of the biggest leaders in the party from the state, former Union minister Shanta Kumar, has made no effort to see Dhumal victorious but has done nothing to ruin his changes either. Enlightened self-interest has ruled on both sides. Kumar derives his importance from the fact that he is the uncrowned king of Kangra which sends a chunk of 16 seats to the assembly. But he also knows that his Rajya Sabha seat can be jeopardised if Dhumal does not co-operate with him.

Dhumal has no detractors from his own party "" yet. But a large part of the party owes its support to Kumar. If he wants to succeed as CM in this term, he has to avoid the mistakes he made in his previous tenure, as well as those by former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh.

Little is known about the politics of Himachal Pradesh because it sends only four MPs to the Lok Sabha "" but that makes it no less absorbing. Because the state has less than 2 per cent Muslims, the politics of sants and mandir has no takers. Politicians from Himachal don't really understand how religion can be a life and death issue "" poor Shanta Kumar lost his job as Union minister when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was Prime Minister. Kumar endorsed, a little too enthusiastically, Vajpayee's 'Raj Dharma' advice to Narendra Modi in the wake of the 2002 Godhra riots, in the mistaken belief that Vajpayee needed moral support. Vajpayee took away his ministership instead.

Kumar's remarks at that time were rooted in his resentment against Modi. In the brief period that he was General Secretary of the BJP in charge of Himachal (1997), Modi had tried to create a new crop of younger leaders to replace Shanta Kumar. Among them was Suresh Chandel, Kripal Parmar ...and Prem Kumar Dhumal.

It is another matter that Chandel was one of the MPs caught in the cash-for-query scam and was suspended from the Lok Sabha (he is alleged to have lost his membership for accepting Rs 20,000 to ask a question). As was his wont, Modi created new factions in the BJP state unit that simmer until today.

But barring that brief period, the central "" and recurrent "" theme in Himachal politics has been the power of the apple versus that of the orange (or more correctly, kinnu); and who can give what to government servants to win them over.

As every fifth Himachali is a government servant, literacy is upwards of 90 per cent and the average per capita income is Rs 33,805 (2005-06). The transfer-posting industry is central to elections. Because this is almost always deeply mired in under-the-table exchanges, every change of government is accompanied by a campaign about whether it was less or more corrupt than the earlier one.

Agrarian issues are fairly clear-cut. The traditional Himachal Pradesh ruling elite has either come from the ranks of Upper Himachal (the apple-growing lobby) or lower Himachal (the orange growers). Who promises what kind of breaks to which lobby determines the outcome of the election.

Six districts of Himachal Pradesh, that is, Kullu, Mandi, Sirmaur, Solan, Kinnaur and Shimla represent the apple lobby. These are the regions that Congress leaders like Virbhadra Singh and Vidya Stokes come from. This has been Congress country. Lower Himachal has willy-nilly become BJP country.

But support for the Congress in these regions has been declining. The Congress had introduced the concept of minimum support price for apple farmers but this is no longer relevant as they can now sell directly to major groups like the Adani group and Reliance.

Instead, the priority now is development "" roads, communications and infrastructure...this has caused traditional political differentials to disappear.

A new issue has been added in the last five years, namely, Himachal's model of development. Power projects have been a bone of contention in the state because they are perceived to endanger the way of life in the hills. Protests usually start from temples dedicated to local deities. Last year, Maheshwar Devta, the presiding deity of village Chagaon in Kinnaur district , 'gave his assent' to street protests against the proposed 1,000 MW Karcham-Wangtoo Hydropower Project. Protests were also launched against a 3MW mini-hydel power project in Sirmour district. SEZs have been earmarked for Himachal, but the government has avoided any high-handedness in acquiring land.

Dhumal is more than aware of the new priorities before the state. In its manifesto, the BJP sought to reach out to women voters as a new constituency and predictably, Dhumal said all the 'dark deals' of the Virbhadra Singh government would be reopened. But with the kind of victory he's won, he will have to do more than that to satisfy the people of Himachal Pradesh.