Aditi Phadnis: Can Amarinder Singh survive?

PLAIN POLITICS

His neglect of urban Punjab could cost the state's chief minister his chair.

Election fever is building up in Punjab. With less than six months to go for a new assembly which has to be in place by March 17, 2007, all political actors, Samurai-like, are adopting fighting postures. Of all the states in India, the maximum tension between government and party seems to be in Punjab "" the government led by Amarinder Singh and the party by Shamsher Singh Dullo. Turbulence in the party "" which became most public during the debate on the land to be given to Reliance to promote its agri-processing zones "" continues.

The state PWD Minister, Partap Singh Bajwa, has recently been issued a show cause notice for allegedly "failing to live up to the expectations of the party during its mass public contact programme". Others have also been served notices. How a politician can "fail to live up to expectations" and how these expectations are to be quantified is a mystery.

Whether he turns on his party and government colleagues or not, the crucial question is: is Amarinder Singh returning to power or not ? Now more than ever, it is a question of how people have evaluated his 2002-07 term.

The last election result predicted Singh would have to work hard. In the 2002 assembly elections the Congress won 62 seats out of 116, just 3 more than the majority mark of 59. This had never happened before in Punjab. Whether the Congress and CPI in 1972 (66+10), the Akali Dal and Janata Party in 1977 (58+27), Congress and Communists in 1980 ( 63+9), Akalis supported by BJP in 1985 (73+6), Congress in 1992 (87 seats) and Akalis and BJP in 1997 (75+18), all the ruling alliances had nearly two-third or even more than that strength to come to power. So the 2002 result was not unequivocally in favour of the Congress. This was the popular perception buttressed by the fact that the Akalis got 44 seats, 49 lesser than last time "" enough to teach them a lesson, but also enough to indicate that they continued to have support.

As Amarinder Singh had headed the Congress to victory, there was no doubt in the mind of the party high command that it was he who had to be made Chief Minister. But his colleagues in the party questioned his authority and continued to cause him pinpricks throughout his tenure. They comprised not only old bete noire Jagmeet Singh Brar and Rajinder Kaur Bhattal, but new ones as well.

In other words, with just a handful of loyal lieutenants by his side, the countryside still in doubt about his antecedents, and claims on the government by Congressmen who had been out of power for years, Singh's task was cut out for him. But since then, a lot has changed. Not only has the chief minister managed to tighten his grip over the party, BJP leaders confess candidly that the fight between the Congress and Akali Dal is for the rural seats.

How could this be ? What has Amarinder Singh done to lose the urban areas of Punjab and win over the rural areas to a point where the Congress and the Akali Dal are now running neck-and-neck ?

Two crucial issues. One, the award of the river waters; and two, procurement of wheat.The Supreme Court in two orders, directed the Punjab government and the centre to construct the Satluj-Yamuna Link canal. Instead, the state government in 2004, through a simple expedient of getting the Punjab Assembly to pass a resolution called the "Punjab Termination of Agreement Act", announced it didn't recognise the order and simply circumvented it, authorised with the backing of a unanimous Assembly. In the contentious water politics of Punjab with Haryana for a share of the Ravi-Beas river network, Punjab disobeyed the Supreme Court, but won in the people's court.

Consider the crisis in Punjab agriculture and it is not hard to see why Singh is so popular in the countryside now. The Punjab farmer, since 1965, has been supplying foodgrains to the rest of India at prices lesser than those prevailing in the global market, effectively subsidising the rest of the Indian consumers. This has caused land to be over-used, soil degradation and lowering of ground water. The water-table has been falling in some blocks at an alarming rate of 70 cm per year. Consequently, shallow tubewells are no longer effective. Deeper tubewells need more diesel hence, the increase in cultivation costs.

Little wonder then, that farmers in Punjab believe their salvation lies in electing a government that does not allow "others" to "steal" their water. And there is the issue of purchase of wheat. Although there has been little change in the minimum support price of wheat over the years, Singh has ensured that government agencies enter the market earlier than before to buy wheat. Previous governments used to buy wheat late in the season, when it would become clear that farmers were unable to sell it to private sector agencies. Early market intervention by the state government three or four times has led farmers to feel reassured. Of course, this year, the government procurement itself has been low, causing wheat to be imported. But no one has forgotten in the rural areas that when farmers were in trouble Singh stood by them. In the urban areas, the problems are different, but here, everything depends on the BJP-Akali Dal tie up. The Congress used to be strong in these areas but the combination of the BJP and the Akali Dal caused this support base to get whittled away. Now, if these two parties continue to bicker as they are doing now, it is the Congress which will walk away with seats from under their noses.

However, with a few months left, Amarinder Singh has to shed his image of being "unavailable" to party workers. Otherwise, he may find himself out on a limb.