Stories about Mayawati and money abound in Lucknow, some true, some not so true. Most of them involve a go-between. One such individual made two points to illustrate the punchline of his story: that Mayawati was the least hypocritical and most straightforward of all politicians. He said the “cost” of a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) nomination varied from place to place. If there were, say, 40,000 Dalits from the Chamar community in a constituency, the cost of the ticket would be Rs 80 lakh; and if there were only 20,000, it would be Rs 40 lakh. So what you paid for was the cost of assured votes. And you paid in proportion to the vote.
He went on to describe a meeting that he had arranged between Mayawati and an industrialist, who, anticipating a change in government, wanted to get on her right side and was willing to pay for the privilege.
A certain sum of money was promised and donated to the BSP. The bag was handed over and murmured assurances exchanged. The meeting took barely five to seven minutes. Then the go-between was called back and a bag handed to him. When seated in the car he asked the industrialist how much he had paid. He then counted how much there was in his bag. It turned out to be exactly 20 per cent of the total sum. This was his fee.
This story might be true. Or it might not. But this much is clear: In this election, Mayawati is choosing her battles. And the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is at their centre.
Regionally, the BSP in Uttar Pradesh is weakest in eastern UP or Poorvanchal today. This area begins from Gorakhpur and rolls in it Varanasi, Ballia, Maharajgunj, Mau, Mirzapur, Jaunpur, Pratapgarh, right up to Allahabad. Barring Ambedkarnagar, she is unlikely to get more than a handful of seats. All this is now considered BJP country, although in 2012, it was the mainstay of the Samajwadi Party. In Bundelkhand, Mayawati has shown she has vote share but not so many seats (in the 2012 Assembly election, out of 19 seats in the Bundelkhand region, the BSP got five but its vote share was upwards of 30 per cent). Central UP is SP area. But in western UP, Mayawati is popular and is expected to make a killing.
What is now emerging is that the Congress was ready to go with the BSP in a pre-poll alliance. It asked for 165 seats out of 403, would have settled at 125 and would have seriously contested in 70. If Mayawati had agreed, the Muslims, seeing the way the wind was blowing, would have gladly sided with this combination, dumping their traditional partner, the SP. But Mayawati’s kitchen cabinet convinced her that on her own, she would have a more effective presence in relation to the Centre than if she had the Congress breathing down her neck. They also explained that Dalits had always been a Congress constituency and via BSP, the Congress could poach on the caste — they would see one more viable alternative. By tying up with the Congress, the BSP would resuscitate the very monster it had slain. So those negotiations came to nothing.
Today, Mayawati is making much of the gains during her regime when physical safety was a central concern. The discourse is about deteriorating law and order in Uttar Pradesh. The most at risk from this are the Dalits and Muslims. She mentions this at almost all her public meetings. Roads may have been built, but of what use are they if you cannot walk on them for fear of being kidnapped, raped or murdered?
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So she has the SP’s anti-incumbency in her favour, a reservoir of Dalit support and is trying to cobble together the backing of the Muslims. While Akhilesh Yadav’s popularity, especially among the young, is undeniable, family baggage is weighing him down. The BJP’s support is growing, but slowly. The more it grows the more determined the Muslims will be to defeat it.
In the circumstances, Mayawati seems to be ahead of her competitors. With the likes of Dayashankar Singh by its side (the BJP vice-president who said Mayawati auctioned tickets of her party and even sex workers were more principled) the BJP is battling heavy odds in the Dalit space. With the air thick with chatter about a Yadav-led Samajwadi Party and the Congress entering a pre-poll alliance, it is the season of deal-making in Uttar Pradesh.