Aditi Phadnis: Still in the race

BACKSTAGE

, who is being backed by India for the post of UN Secretary General, has come second in the straw poll earlier this week. For a result world capitals have been waiting for several weeks, the procedure for the straw poll is surprisingly simple. Fifteen ambassadors assemble in a room close to the Security Council chambers, receive a paper ballot each with the names of four potential candidates. Beside each name are three boxes, one marked "encourage", the second "discourage", and the third "no opinion."

Of the four candidates, South Korea's Foreign Minister Ban Ki Moon had the most "encourage" tally. Ban, a career diplomat who once served at South Korea's UN mission, received 12 "encourages", one "discourage", and two "no opinions". Tharoor, a UK-born Indian, received 10 "encourages", two "discourages" and three "no opinions". The others "" Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai and former UN Disarmament Official Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka "" are so far behind that they are likely to withdraw from the race.

Should we be popping the champagne? Much, much too early to say, caution UN watchers. The first straw poll is about the time the Byzantine politics of the United Nations begins to work and nations began to show their hand, not hitherto evident. There is talk that former Singaporean Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and Jordan's UN Ambassador Prince Zeid al-Hussein might throw their hat in the ring now. The fact is that history shows that early entries rarely end up in the secretary-general's chair. In a world deeply divided over the role, functions and efficacy of the UN, new alignments will form, edging out old ones because all said and done, clinching the UN Secretary General post is a matter of national prestige.

Earlier this week, the US ambassador at the UN, John Bolton, kept US cards close to his chest. He said any indication from one of the Security Council's permanent members at this stage could be the kiss of death. But he suggested that it might be time for other candidates to enter the fray. In a statement, US President Bush said it was the far east's turn for a new UN Secretary General.

In fact, the negotiations between China and the US are crucial. Finally, only the P-5 matter in the selection. The problem is, given the current animus between China and Japan, getting Japan to agree on a candidate. UN watchers say a candidate endorsed jointly by the US, China and Japan would get a lot of purchase on the slippery incline for the job.

But does such a candidate exist ? India is working furiously to get the three to agree to Tharoor. But there are multilateral and bilateral angles to this negotiation that are more complex than WTO talks. No one knows this better than Tharoor.

September is the month to watch. That's when world leaders gather in New York for the annual General Assembly debate, deals are done and agreements struck. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has indicated he might skip the UN

General Assembly, instead opting to go to Cuba for the NAM meeting. But he may have to change his mind.