Karunanidhi has to manage his allies as well the factions within his own family. It is not known if Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) chief and founder S Ramadoss proposes to implement the resolution his party's Executive Committee passed in Puducherry last week: to face the 2011 assembly elections with parties other than the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK).
The resolution said nothing about another intervening election "" the Lok Sabha polls due next year. The last election that the PMK fought in alliance with the M Karunanidhi-led DMK was for the Assembly in 2006. True, it was the DMK that managed to form the government, but it was in alliance with other parties. If that alliance does not hold, it may be hard for the DMK to extrapolate its assembly victory to the Lok Sabha.
The ADMK's performance in the assembly elections was nothing to sneer about. It got 61 seats out of a total 225, despite huge anti-incumbency resentment. This is important because Tamil Nadu has in the past seen the politics of clean sweep by alliances. Things have changed though. The assembly election also saw many new entrants on the political scene in Tamil Nadu "" the Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam (DMDK) led by actor Vijayakanth, and the All India Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK) led by another actor Sarath Kumar. Both have since invoked the legacy of late the M G Ramachandran and are now expected to damage ADMK. Since then, in two byelections, the ADMK has come a distant third yielding to DMK and Vijayakanth's DMDK.
In other words, the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu is no longer what it used to be. Political actors in the state have been masters at coalition management. But in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009, Tamil Nadu is going to be the most unpredictable of all states. As it sends 39 seats to the Lok Sabha, it can't be overlooked.
A few questions need to be answered to reach a judgment about political behaviour. Will the DMK still be around in the shape, size, and ideological composition that it is today? Remember, it has had two recent organisational setbacks: one, the falling out between Karunanidhi and Maran families; and second, the resultant rift in his immediate family which is in full public view. The Marans are out and as their political clout is negligible, it is they who stand to lose the most, not Karunanidhi.
The fight between the sons Stalin and Azhagiri is another matter, however. Azhagiri's 57th birthday was celebrated in Madurai last month. Both his father and younger brother, chief minister-in-waiting Stalin, were busy with the assembly session in Chennai. But this did not stop six ministers in the Karunanidhi cabinet, known to be close to Azhagiri, from attending the Madurai celebrations. Billboards in Chennai carried Stalin's picture interpreted as Azhagiri's supporters daring Stalin to object to them.
Azhagiri has made light of differences with his brother. "Two eyes never meet, but when they cry, tears fall together from both," he remarked when asked about the rivalry between him and his brother. But then just weeks earlier, Karunanidhi's counsel could not have been disregarded: "A clock has two hands. Both should work well to show the correct time." So for the ruling coalition in Tamil Nadu, it is not just the parties Karunanidhi has to manage to stay on in power, it is also factions in his own family that run party factions.
On the administration front, there is little that should bother the chief minister. Of the total foreign direct investment (FDI) that flowed into India in 2006, over 9 per cent went to Tamil Nadu. It is one of the states with the highest number of highly successful Special Economic Zones (SEZs). But despite left-of-centre rhetoric, the DMK has seen no agitation against SEZs during its tenure. Last week, Karunanidhi threatened to nationalise cement units if they didn't bring down prices. Industry scurried to comply. Construction labour that is facing a livelihood problem because of the vagaries of cement production and distribution, and those seeking to construct homes between 500 square feet and 1,000 square feet at a cost varying between Rs 500,000 and Rs 1,000,000 are the main beneficiaries. Karunanidhi managed to do with a sentence, what it took Finance Minister P Chidambaram a decade-old MRTPC case to achieve. Cement suppliers deny that they have been victims of political arm-twisting: the surest indication that they have, but no one is complaining
There is no appreciable slowdown in investment in the state as a result of his interventions. Other populist policies have been put in place, such as a monthly stipend scheme for the unemployed to cover more than 2,00,000 registered beneficiaries across the state is in place. The free colour TV scheme is now old. Free LPG cylinders are all the rage.
A good ruler but a tired manager? That seems a good description of M Karunanidhi. Others who have hitched their wagons to this star would be well-advised to factor this in while evaluating their political options.
