Aditi Phadnis: Will gaurav save Modi?

PLAIN POLITICS

Voters recognising Modi's work in restoring the state's pride is the only hope he has.

Those of a certain age will vividly remember Indira Gandhi's slogan during the 1971 elections. The rallying cry of the Congress (Requisitionists) was Indira Hatao (throw out Indira). Gandhi's response was: "Woh kahte hain Indira Hatao. Mein kahti hoon 'garibi hatao'." In political terms it was a master stroke, for not only did Gandhi become the centre of the campaign but she also established the primacy of the issue around which the elections were fought. The Congress won 352 seats and 43 per cent of the votes, and all the challengers to Gandhi's leadership were silenced, at least for the moment.

Something of this is developing today in Gujarat, which is set to face the assembly elections at the end of the year. Chief Minister Narendra Modi is trying out Gandhi's strategy. On the face of it, the elections are likely to be about Gujarati gaurav (pride), with Modi offering himself as the only one capable of protecting it. He will fight a campaign not just against the opposition in the assembly but against the opposition to him in his own party. There are enough dovecotes Modi has disturbed. Some interest groups have been dislodged from power as a result of his very appointment as chief minister. Others have had their pride injured by him. The revolt of the BJP in and around Surat, once its bastion, is largely a result of the revolt of industrialists and diamond merchants, represented by the Leuva Patel community, to which veteran BJP leader and former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel belongs. The half-a-dozen BJP MLAs who were expelled by the party recently are supporters of Keshubhai Patel. Diamond merchants have been an influential force in Gujarat. Modi has let them know they don't bother him. In the last one month alone, FIRs for stealing power have been filed by the Gujarat Electricity Board (GEB) against 10 persons in Surat and four in Mehsana, most of them industrialists. The GEB unearthed 578 cases of power theft worth Rs 2.4 crore in July this year. It is filing cases merrily. Over the years, in part because of this crackdown, aggregate technical and commercial losses in Surat are down to 8 per cent. They are 30 per cent in Delhi.

Kutch and Saurashtra, the base of Keshubhai's support, are suffering from injured pride. In the 2002 assembly elections, this region voted against the BJP "" its tally came down from 52 to 38 in 2002, out of a total of 58 assembly seats in the region. If the Congress plays its cards sensibly, Modi will be badly defeated in this area. Could he have saved the situation? It is hard to see how. At least now that the rebels have been thrown out, he can choose his own candidates. It helps that the rebels are undecided. They are in talks with Sonia Gandhi, they say. At the same time, they claim they are the real BJP and Modi is a fascist imposter. This confusion is likely to turn the balance of advantage in Modi's favour.

Modi's biggest and most bitter challenger is Vishva Hindu Parishad's (VHP's) Pravin Togadia. How the two friends fell out is a long story. Just days ago, Togadia said at a press conference that the VHP will not support the BJP in the assembly elections. He also said: "No one should consider himself the most powerful person and ruling over the hearts of the people." This says it all. The fact is that the VHP used to traditionally play the role of facilitator in Gujarat, serving as an interface between the government and industry. Modi knew these tactics only too well and let the VHP know its services were not needed any more. Modi has not spared the tender mercies of the RSS either. Relief work in the Gujarat floods last year was not entrusted to RSS cadres. Instead activists of an NGO, the Swadhyay Parivar, were given the relief materials. During a rath yatra in Bhavnagar last year, the district administration did not allow a procession to proceed with the weapons of Ram and Hanuman. Among those who sat in protest against the government move were well-known RSS supporters Haribhai Kordaliya, former BJP OBC cell chairman, and former state BJP chief Rajendrasinh Rana. The yatra could proceed only after they had sat on dharna for four hours. The RSS did not issue a personal invitation to Modi for its meeting in Gujarat last year. He did not attend.

With all this, what are Modi's strengths? What is he going to sell in the elections? Development, for one. Even those who didn't go there know Bhuj was levelled after the earthquake in 2001. Go to Bhuj now. New roads, a new town, new houses ... true, the government hasn't done it alone but it has been a remarkable recovery.

Earlier this month, Modi laid the foundations of a finance city, a technology park and an integrated township in Gandhinagar. IL&FS signed several memoranda with investors like Kotak Mahindra (committed to developing 300 acres of land), Chest Core (to design 2 million square feet space), Punj Lloyd (set to design 1 million square feet built-up space), and Fairwood Associates (to deal with 1 million square foot area). This follows commitments worth Rs 660,000 crore in January 2007 at the Vibrant Gujarat Investors' summit. All hype, claim rebels. Some of it, possibly, but surely not all of it? The Congress's charge is that this is for the benefit of just four industrial houses. Modi hasn't bothered to respond.

India will be watching Narendra Modi's progress very closely. The Gujarat assembly elections will be Modi's election. If he wins, he is going to be invulnerable. If he loses... well, he'd better watch out.