Karnataka by-elections: Ageless victory for the B S Yeddiyurappa family

By-elections were held for two Assembly constituencies - Rajarajeshwari Nagar (RR Nagar) in Bengaluru; and Sira in Tumkur district. BJP won both the seats

Amid the din of the Bihar Assembly elections, the politics behind a host of other Assembly by-elections went unnoticed. Take Karnataka.

By-elections were held for two Assembly constituencies — Rajarajeshwari Nagar (RR Nagar) in Bengaluru; and Sira in Tumkur district. Both seats are in the Old Mysore region, dominated by the politically influential Vokkaligas, represented by such leaders of stature as former Prime Minister H D Deve Gowda, his son and former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy, and others. Karnataka’s ruling classes have, for long, been either the Vokkaligas or the Lingayats [represented by Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa (BSY)].

Despite his caste, BSY, a former RSS leader, has never had an easy time of it in the faction-ridden BJP in Karnataka. With the disclaimer that most by-elections are won by the party in power in the state, this one was interesting for two reasons: It was expected to be won by the Janata Dal (Secular) because both constituencies are deep in Vokkaliga territory; and the ruling BJP, especially the group backing BSY, seized upon it as a chance to challenge adversaries, both in the party and outside, by letting BSY’s son Vijayendra lose here. D K Shivkumar, Congress chief, is a Vokkaliga and RR Nagar was part of the Lok Sabha constituency of D K Suresh, his brother. This was the only seat the Congress won in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in the state. Most thought a Congress victory was a foregone conclusion.

But it was in Sira that the challenge really lay. This has been a fortress of the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular). To junkies of election data, statistically, the probability of the BJP winning the seat was nil: It has never been able to win it in 40 years and the BJP candidate has always stood in third place or lower. Its best showing has been 24,000 votes (in a total of 250,000). The Vokkaligas are an overwhelming majority, followed by voters from the scheduled castes, scheduled tribes, backward classes, and Muslims. The Lingayat voters number fewer than 5,000.

Periodically, rumours start, mostly from New Delhi, that the BJP high command is planning to replace BSY. Winning the two by-elections was not such big deal — it wasn’t as if the survival of the government was in danger, as was the case in Madhya Pradesh. Here, the subtext was different. With BSY detractors repeatedly reminding the BJP leadership of the age embargo of 75 (BSY is 77), ambitious leaders could sense that a replacement would be needed soon in Karnataka. What better time to strike than now? BSY’s efforts to promote his son have met with a lot of pushback. So there was no real resistance when Mr Vijayendra (currently state party vice-president) was named the party and campaign in charge of the by-elections: Give a man a job he can’t do and you set him up to fail, right?

The Congress candidate in Sira was T B Jayachandra, a six-term MLA, powerful leader, and former minister. The entire Deve Gowda family campaigned in favour of the JD(S) candidate. These included Mr Deve Gowda, former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy, former minister Revanna, Hassan MP Prajwal Revanna, and Mr Deve Gowda’s grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy. “Mr Vijayendra’s statement [(that he will defeat the JD(S)] has presented me with a challenge and I won’t allow him to finish off JD(S) in Sira,” said Mr Deve Gowda, determined to protect the caste turf.

On November 10, when the results came, both the Congress and the JD(S) were beyond embarrassed. In Sira, the BJP candidate, C M Rajesh Gowda, won by 13,000 votes. In RR Nagar, the margin was a whopping 57,000 votes — huge, in an Assembly constituency.

“The government misused officials. I won’t discuss the way money was used. We have failed, that’s all. People didn’t vote for us as much as we expected,” said D K Shivakumar. The JD(S) is still licking its wounds: The Sira election was caused by the death of the sitting JD(S) MLA and they fielded his hapless widow. They could not protect her honour.

Mr Vijayendra’s associates say the elections were won because he camped on the ground in Sira and did not move from the constituency till the campaign ended. In December 2019, when he managed the KR Pet campaign for the BJP and the party won, wresting the seat from the JD(S) under its nose, many said it was a fluke. This victory has proved that it wasn’t.

You can’t argue with an election victory. Mr Vijayendra has proved himself, and is now clearly among the frontrunners to take BSY’s place — obviously a section of the BJP doesn’t like this. How will it hit back? And how will Mr Vijayendra respond? The next chapter of this engrossing story will be the Basava Kalyan by-poll, where the sitting MLA died because of Covid-19 complications. Will Mr Vijayendra contest? And what’s to stop him from becoming a minister? And who knows what else!