The United Progressive Alliance appears to be stable and unthreatened even after the Trinamool Congress (TMC) left it in a huff, indicating that the party’s brinksmanship will have little immediate national fallout. The question, though, is where it leaves the TMC, its leader, Mamata Banerjee, and the state it rules, West Bengal. The Congress is, after all, the TMC’s only natural ally. Membership of a “third front” grouping is impossible as long as the Left parties remain the backbone of such a concept. Joining the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is tough, given the near-farcical extent to which the party has gone to capture the votes of West Bengal’s muslims. (Remember, the resignations of the TMC’s ministers were only to be handed in “after Friday prayers”.) Its opposition to the Congress’ reforms, thus, isolates the party completely. Nor have the recent actions or the personal style of the chief minister improved her reputation as a reliable ally.
The implications for West Bengal are severe. The government’s bent towards populism is made worse by both its inability to deliver on increased investment and economic activity, and the dire condition of the state’s coffers. If the TMC is unable to provide genuine economic betterment, then the political payoff to governing seriously and constructively is low. The ruling party will thus likely try to keep issues on the boil, in a permanent state of agitation — hoping, perhaps, that some upheaval, electoral or otherwise, will go in its favour. As irresponsible and immature as it may seem, there is a method to Ms Banerjee’s politics. On the issue of the Tata plant at Singur, it appears that she reached the limits of her brinksmanship — but her party was thereby able to make a winning issue out of farmers’ desire to not have their land unfairly expropriated. She had inherited two major political problems — a demand for Gorkhaland in Darjeeling and a Maoist uprising in the Jangal Mahal area. She appears to have solved both problems quickly, if at a price. The hill district has been virtually handed over to the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, and a two-pronged strategy has been followed against the Maoists — get them militarily on the run, using Central paramilitary forces, while intensifying development efforts. It is the TMC’s economics that will trip it up before its politics does.
The danger the state government poses to West Bengal’s economy is present and real. Hurdles to investment are higher than ever, and business’ faith in the government, never high, is at rock-bottom. What is more, the state’s administration, never of a very high order, has declined even further in the year the TMC has held power. Ad hoc-ism abounds, made worse by throwing all administrative propriety to the winds to carry out the chief minister’s orders — even whimsical diktats on Kolkata street lighting or paint. Having lost the chance of extra Central assistance in the short run and unlikely to garner long-term revenue because of inadequate growth, economic doom stares West Bengal in the face.