<b>Agnikalam:</b> The India-Pakistan phenomenon - ready for economic deconstruction

Fully free trade with Pakistan will hopefully abate its relentless compulsions for attack

One of the best recent novels is The Reluctant Fundamentalist by Mohsin Hamid, a non-resident Pakistani, an NRP so to speak, educated at Princeton and Harvard, employed at one point in New York and now living in London. Of several reviews, the most apt was New Statesman's - "Admirably spare and amazingly exciting" - reflecting the subtle tones that weave the transformation of an upper-class, soft-spoken Pakistani boy educated in America, a janissary for the West, to a bearded protagonist who returns to Pakistan.

But this is not a book review. The reason for its use lies in its final pages where the author emotes against India through the protagonist's voice, derailing his "spare" narrative, and essentially leading to its collapse. Post-9/11, "the threat of war with India reached its highest point ... the heat was too great for an Indian offensive in the desert, then because the monsoon's rains made driving treacherous for Indian tanks in the Punjab". There is no mention of Kargil. "America felt justified in bringing so many deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq, and ... in risking so many more deaths by tacitly using India to pressure Pakistan." Thus, the determining factors for India, the would-be attacker, not to attack are attributed to weather, war strategy and confidence emanating from an Indian-American nexus.

The question is why otherwise enlightened Pakistanis would feel this way. On this side of the Line of Control, or the LoC, their Indian counterparts find it far-fetched that an American-Indian nexus exists, leave alone persists, in light of the extraordinary tensions between them that have historically existed, will continue to exist, and perhaps will intensify in light of recently emerging world economic and political events. The clearly unsuccessful July 31 day-long talks in New Delhi between the foreign ministers of both nations and their open admission to "a lot of homework" to do and "divergence" are its latest evidence. I recall a 2006 visit to a venerable educational institution in Karachi where the faculty and students and persons of eminence embraced my presence even while, in everyone's speech, India was referred as if not doing so publicly was socially indefensible. I remember wondering why we in India are not similarly afflicted despite nuclear capability on both sides.

Because India is, physically and normatively, more expansive. Clearly, India has to play the larger role by persistently extending its hand in cooperation. Prime ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh tried albeit with very limited success. Despite the latest continual provocations, confidence-building measures have to be deepened by our new prime minister. Indo-Pak trade remains little compared to Indo-Bangla. Figure 1 reveals that while India's imports from Bangladesh and Pakistan have been comparable, the former has surpassed the latter. Further, India's exports have been far higher to Bangladesh than to Pakistan. India's integrated border posts at Attari with Pakistan and Petrapol with Bangladesh that oversee the procedures for trade and security reveal the difference in trade volumes handled despite the former's larger infrastructure to handle expansion. Pakistan's being a considerably smaller economy than India's, it seems natural that India should consider to unilaterally and comprehensively liberalise trade with Pakistan despite the latter's shorter positive list for which it allows trade with India. After all, as figure 2 shows, India's share of trade with Pakistan to its total trade remains minuscule, at 0.7 per cent of its total exports and at 0.1 per cent of its total imports in 2013-14, lower figures than with Bangladesh. Opening up trade with Pakistan fully, to begin, India's exports would jump leading to both pecuniary and non-pecuniary gains. Pakistan's exports should also improve.

A visit to the Wagah border and witnessing the drill and mock show of force by our soldiers, both men and women, arouse feelings of patriotism. Yet the subsequent two shakes of hand by bedecked jawans on both sides of their divisive gates raise the fraternity quotient. Resultant of the statecraft of foreigners and assimilation by our respective leaders of the day, one needs to squint the eyes to view our distancing cousins across the gates. They wave their flag. A wave of hands from this side invites a similar wave of hands from theirs.

Yet great wars have been fought among cousins. On return to the city, one learns that more of our jawans have made the supreme sacrifice for the nation, for our protection.

"Gathered round preceptor Drona, Pandavas in armour bright/Like the five star constellation round the radiant Queen of Night,/Gathered round the proud Duryodhan, dreaded for his exploits done,/All his brave and warlike brothers and preceptor Drona's son./Wrathful sons of Dhritarashtra, born of Kuru's royal race!/Righteous sons of noble Pandu, god-born men of godlike grace!"1

The big placard just inside the Indian border proclaiming "Respect All, Suspect All!" that had earlier invited smiles from passers-by suddenly appears relevant. No doubt our neighbour's ceaseless incursions set more goalposts for our leaders to cross. We could begin by dazzling our neighbour with free trade as a unilateral gesture and wait to see the response. Improbable as it may sound, fully free trade should improve its economic prospects, contain its burgeoning internal strife, hopefully abate its relentless compulsions for attack, and bring positive externalities to our own soil. But it won't be easy. It has to be achieved by leapfrogging hurdles that would rear their head from far corners of the bureaucracy.

1. Mahabharata (circa 1300-1400 BC) in English Verse, Romesh Dutt C J E, J M Dent and Co, London, 1898