A feature of IM attacks is the choice of "soft targets" such as mass transportation systems, crowded markets, court houses, and wherever people congregate in large numbers. More recently, Jewish institutions and foreign nationals have been added to this list. Most of the attacks between 2010 and 2013 have been attributed to the IM though some like the German Bakery attack, were possibly in collaboration with LeT. Both LeT and IM networks remain active, despite claims to the contrary. It would be a mistake to believe otherwise. On the other hand, given the new terrorist dynamic, one should envisage the possibility of both the intensity and the number of attacks being stepped up in the period ahead. It is both worthwhile and relevant here to look at the additional support that apparently exists for terrorist outfits in India. The role of the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) is particularly significant in this respect. Currently banned, SIMI is seen as one of the fountainheads of Islamic extremist ideology in the country. It is now established that it often acts as an ideological mentor to cadres of IM, the Jam-Iyyathul-Ansar-ul- Muslimeen (JIAM) and Hizb-ut-Tehrir, all of whom are firm believers in jihad and the necessity of engaging in militant activities to achieve their ends. While IM has carried out a series of attacks across the country, JIAM has carried out a series of terrorist attacks in Kerala and beyond.
The IM module led by Riyaz Bhatkal responsible for the serial blasts in Bangalore in July 2008, is a conspicuous example of the nexus that exists between IM and above mentioned extremist outfits acting under the overall guidance of LeT. Complicating this situation is the complex web of internecine links between these organisations, and other radical Muslim fronts that profess to be political in nature.
Separating terrorist outfits from bodies that profess to be political in character is indeed a major challenge. Intelligence reports do report the existence of links of some members of these bodies with LeT, but confirmation of their involvement in terrorist actions has not been forthcoming. The police in states concerned are convinced that "fringe members" of these various organisations do act as conveyor belts and collaborators. Consequently, the ambit of terrorist activities in the country is steadily becoming enlarged, rather than diminishing.
India cannot also afford to ignore the extraordinarv comeback of the several Al-Qaeda affiliates across parts of Asia and Africa, and including Russia. Premature rejoicing about the demise of syndicated terrorism following the killing of Osama bin Laden, the perceived setbacks to outfits like the AQAP, Al-Shabab, and the advent of the Arab Spring have proved to be misplaced. Events over the past several months tell a different story, and there are lessons in this for us in India, both in terms of terrorist ideology and tactics. Perhaps for the first time in the history of terrorism worldwide, terrorist networks are currently seeking to hold territory rather than merely attack high-profile and soft targets. It is estimated that terrorist networks worldwide today hold more territory than at any time in recent history. Also, the flood of new recruits to terrorist networks worldwide is perhaps the highest ever.
Two, possibly three, terror attacks in quick succession recently, including a suicide bomb attack at a railway station in Volgograd killing 17, and a second one in a bus also in Volgograd killing 14 people, reveal that capacity and geographic range are no impediments for terrorists today. In the backdrop of over 2,000 attacks and violent incidents in Russia, including more than 50 suicide attacks after the so-called Caucasian Caliphate came into existence some years back, it reflects the increasing spread and the kind of recruits available to terrorist outfits today. Many more ethnic jehadis - many of them recent converts to Islam - are greatly enlarging the terrorist pool.
The so-called failure of the Arab Spring has also provided opportunities for an ideological revival of the terrorist movement. The conflict in Libya and the Civil war in Syria has brought in both weapons and manpower, leading to a revival of networks once viewed as having been decimated. New ideologies are being spread through the internet and jihadi websites, and are attracting a host of new followers. The revival of the idea of a new Caliphate on the lines of the Abbasid Caliphate is aggravating the situation.
In the process, rivalries and acrimony between leaders and different terrorist outfits are being set aside. The new imperative is to try and infuse new strength into terrorist franchises. The result is that from Tunisia to Libya to Syria to Sudan, various Al-Qaeda affiliates are perhaps in their strongest position today than ever before. The emergence of a new crop of leaders such as Al Baghdadi in Syria/Iraq, and the trend of identifying ethnic recruits from countries targeted, adds a new dimension to the terrorist threat. Strengthening of several of the Al-Qaeda affiliates, will further add to the sinews of regional jihadi groups in our neighbourhood. Furthermore, it would enable them to find new sanctuaries in a rapidly changing West Asia, and in a future Afghanistan which may be more conciliatory and committed to, or include, the Taliban.
The emerging dynamic suggests that there are no clear and defined ground rules that dictate how, when and where a terrorist attack takes place. Consequently, complacency that a reduction in the number of terrorist incidents signifies that the threat from terrorism has been reduced would be a serious error.
Edited excerpts from the first R V Raju Memorial lecture delivered by former National Security Advisor and current West Bengal Governor, M K Narayanan, in New Delhi, January 20, 2014