An eternal flashpoint

In medieval times it was the practice of impecunious and unscrupulous European monarchs to "organise" the punishment of entire Jewish communities for the actions of one or two Jewish moneylenders who had the "cheek" to ask for repayments of their loans from the monarch. The process of Jew-baiting eventually culminated in the ghastliness of the Holocaust under Hitler. Is it not an irony, then, that although the Israelis refuse to acknowledge it, this is exactly what their government is doing in Lebanon""holding all Lebanese responsible for the actions of a Shia militant group, the Hizbollah which has 14 MPs in the Lebanese Parliament and a few ministers as well?

The immediate provocation is that the Hizbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers on July 11. It uses kidnapped soldiers to negotiate the release of its own people from Israeli prisons. The Hizbollah also shelled Israel from its Lebanese bases in an unprovoked, irresponsible and indeed foolhardy attack. In the military action since then, about a dozen Israeli soldiers have been killed. Civilian casualties on the Lebanese side are currently around 300. Israel is also trying to blockade Lebanon. The Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been similarly guilty of provoking Israel, and Israel's response there too has been out of all proportion to the original provocation.

When a European monarch slaughtered innocent Jews, the rest would not protest. Some would also abet. The international response today has had interesting variations: the Europeans have criticised Israel for the use of excessive force, the US thinks the Arabs have been irresponsible and should behave themselves, and Israel has presented itself as merely reacting to unprovoked aggravations. The Arab governments in the region have been careful in their statements, while (to everyone's surprise) it is Iraq's prime minister who has spoken out against Israel. To be sure, Hizbollah's "irresponsible adventurism" is to be blamed for the new round of violence, and Iran's backing to the group does not improve matters. But if Israel claims to be a civilised democracy, and continues to bomb innocent people as a part of its strategy of claiming the entire body for an eye, it can only lose international sympathy.

The "body" in question consists of low-income Shia areas, whom the Hizbollah represents. The Lebanese government has disenfranchised them and the Hizbollah provides the helping hand. Meanwhile, Israel has said that it will go on bombing until the soldiers are released, the Hizbollah is disarmed and the Lebanese army is deployed in Southern Lebanon, that is, against the Shias. The question now is: if this doesn't happen, as indeed it will not because the Lebanese government will not want to start off another sectarian strife, will Israel invade Lebanon as it did in 1982?

On a longer view, this excessive use of force by the Israelis could""and probably will""have two major consequences. One is the further radicalization of Arab opinion and attitudes. Another is the higher prices that consumers will have to pay for oil, because uncertainty in West Asia affects the oil market. There is also an important question that is raised by the initial provocation on the part of Hamas and Hizbollah, both of which have gained legitimacy in Palestine and Lebanon through the ballot. If democracy in Arab countries (President Bush's dream for the region) brings radical or violent groups into office, where does that leave the dream? In short, West Asia is not moving any closer to resolving its conflicts, and that is bad news for the rest of the world.