Thaksin is likely to win the next election as well if it is free and fair, setting off another attempt to block him. Expect more chaos.
Thailand, the ‘land of smiles’ has little to smile about. The reigning monarch, King Bhumibhol Adulyadej’s 81st birthday on December 5 — an occasion which traditionally attracts cheer is shrouded in gloom as Thailand’s political imbroglio and high-voltage political drama continues. The decision of the Constitutional Court on December 2 to dissolve the ruling party, the Peoples Power Party (PPP) and its two coalition partners on charges of electoral fraud, comes close on the heels of the state of emergency. Observers suggest orchestrated political mayhem of the last few weeks was designed to force the government elected in December 2007 (who have about 65 per cent of the 480 seats) out and pave the way for yet another military-backed government.
The emergency was precipitated by the unprecedented siege of the new Bangkok International Airport by an anti-government, anti-Thaksin coalition — the Peoples Alliance for Democracy (PAD). The PAD was demanding the resignation of the elected government led by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat. The closure of the airport led to an estimated 350,000 stranded passengers, cancelled flights and growing economic losses in this important tourism season. Not only had the PAD besieged the new airport; earlier, it had also occupied the Government House. This had forced the government to move to the premises of the old airport, Don Mueang — which it later occupied as well. This compelled the government to move from Bangkok to the northern city of Chiang Mai. The Army Chief suggested that the government resign and hold fresh elections, which was rejected by the prime minister. On the other hand, the army chief refused to implement the prime minister’s emergency decree, granting the military extraordinary powers to clear the airports of the protestors.
With the ruling, the prime minister has stepped down and the protestors are dispersing but the damage has been done. The current state of political anarchy and talk of Thailand’s descent into a ‘failed state’ is causing both international embarrassment and heartburn within. Thailand was to host Asean and East Asia summits next month; the former has been postponed to March 2009. Three other Asean members have suggested that Thailand relinquish its chairmanship.
Since the elected Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra was deposed in a bloodless coup in 2006, the country has been going from one crisis to another. The effervescent nation known for its placid beaches and welcoming tourism is in virtual political quicksand with intense political polarisation within. Inter-elite politics has deeply divided the nation.
Thaksin has been a charismatic but divisive figure — who ran roughshod over various political factions including the traditional elite, comprising of a medley of rightists and neo-liberals such as the PAD, royalists, army and conservatives. But his grass-root Keynesian debt moratorium to farmers in the countryside, $30,000 scheme to each of Thailand’s 70,000-plus villages and $1 dollar national health insurance scheme created a formidable rural vote-bank. This rural stronghold engineered 3 consecutive electoral victories for Thaksin and his supporters. On the other hand, the traditional elite questions the populist agenda and politics and wants a return to the political dispensation of the ‘80s and ‘90s, where the elite were active stake-holders.
Part of the problem is the antecedents of the government (dismissed this week) — it was led by the Peoples Power Party, a re-hash and re-grouping of Thaksin’s disbanded party, Thai Rak Thai. The PPP had fought a keen election on a thinly guised platform of a vote for PPP translating as a ‘vote for Thaksin’. The government wanted to amend the recent 2007 Constitution. This Constitution, with contentious provisions, politicises the judiciary and dilutes the powers of key institutions such as the Senate, replacing the earlier widely-lauded 1997 “Peoples Constitution”. This fuelled the crisis with anti-Thaksin forces baying for PPP’s blood. While the earlier PPP Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej was cornered to step down because of his participation in a cooking show; his successor Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law, was deposed this week.
In the meantime, Thaksin is dodging the prison sentence awarded by a special bench of the Supreme Court due to ‘conflict of interest’ in a publicised land scam and screaming injustice due to his UK visa (where he lived in exile) being revoked. Thaksin has also been in the spotlight for his annulment of 32-year old marriage to Potjaman Shinawatra — dismissed as a politically motivated gimmick to enable his wife to fight a three-year prison term in a tax-evasion case.
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The PAD is rooting for a “New Order” — advocating a part-appointed, part-elected Lower House of Parliament (70 per cent appointed, 30 per cent elected), leading to fears of quiet military resurgence. PAD argues that successive elections have brought about “bad” leadership. PAD is backed by media-mogul and ex-Thaksin crony Sondhi Limthongkul (Manager Group) and Major General Chamlong Srimuang. According to academic Ji Ungpakorn, who is no Thaksin supporter, “The PAD is a royalist fascist mob which has powerful backing. Apart from the army, they are supported by the Queen, the so-called Democrat Party, the courts, the mainstream media and most university academics”. Observers say that implication of the ‘royal factor’ and military backing has made PAD run amuck — besieging government institutions and having its aggressive politics and antics condoned.
As politics takes centre-stage and power factions slug it out, it appears that the country is held hostage. Business confidence is steadily denting with economic growth slowing. While the economy grew by 6.9 per cent in 2003, the global downtrend and domestic political uncertainty is adding to the economic slowdown.
In the coming week, the Parliament is likely to reconvene for an extraordinary session to elect a new prime minister, failing which, a national reconciliation government looks likely. The Election Commission will also rule next week — on the legitimacy of the 2007 elections.
Through the impasse, long-serving monarch Bhumibol Adulyadej who was on the throne for more than 60 years, has been keeping an uncharacteristically low profile. In lieu of the aging monarch, considered the final word in the political system, courts are now mediating the political landscape. Thaksin is also re-inventing himself — a third avatar — after TRT, and PPP, its members are moving to form the Pua Thai Party.
Thaksin and his supporters are likely to win the next elections if it is free and fair — given the huge support he enjoys outside Bangkok. Yet another attempt to block him will likely be in the offing, including a veiled military coup. The cycle is going to go on. All roads indicate that Thailand stands precariously perched on the threshold of yet another descent into prolonged instability.