As yet, just a protest vote

In the absence of fundamental legal changes, 'NOTA' is only a means of expressing disapproval of all the candidates in an election, with no ability to influence the result

The ‘none of the above’ (NOTA) option, the last button in electronic voting machines (EVMs), came into force owing to a September 2013 judgment of the Supreme Court. The apex court said: “When the political parties will realise that a large number of people are expressing their disapproval with the candidates...there will be a systemic change and the political parties will be forced to accept the will of the people and field candidates who are known for their integrity.”

It is not easy to evaluate how NOTA is evolving in the country, and how people are adapting and using this tool of expressing dissatisfaction over candidates contesting an election. This is because one needs more than one election to understand and evaluate changing patterns. Since NOTA was introduced only a few states — such as Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram — have had more than one Assembly election until 2018. And, interestingly, the popularity of NOTA was seen to be decreasing in those states. However, is the enthusiasm over NOTA increasing or decreasing in the country as a whole?

The 2019 Lok Sabha election was an excellent opportunity in this context, as this was the second general election after the NOTA option had been introduced in late 2013. Let’s compare how the NOTA option was exercised in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections in 542 constituencies (except Vellore, where the election was withheld in 2019).

If we take constituency-wise percentages, the average NOTA vote share in 2014 was 1.11, which declined to 1.08 in 2019, the reduction being statistically insignificant. However, the maximum values of NOTA percentages recorded in these two years are formidable — both being 5.04 — in Bastar (Chhattisgarh) in 2014, and Gopalganj (Bihar) in 2019. The number of Lok Sabha constituencies with at least three per cent NOTA votes increased to 16 in 2019, from 11 in 2014. And the number of constituencies with at least four per cent NOTA votes increased to five in 2019, from four in 2014.

On the other hand, the minimum NOTA percentages registered were 0.14 in Hisar (Haryana) in 2014 and 0.17 in Bidar (Karnataka) in 2019. Interestingly, the maximum change in NOTA votes in a constituency is more than three percentage points — a 3.07 percentage-point increase in Gopalganj, and a 3.19 percentage-point decrease in Nilgiris (Tamil Nadu).

Although the average NOTA vote shares remained almost constant during these two elections, the 2019 percentages exceeded the corresponding 2014 figures only in about 45 per cent of constituencies. Among the states, Andhra Pradesh experienced the highest increase in NOTA votes (0.84 percentage points), while Kerala registered the maximum decrease (0.63 percentage points) over these two Lok Sabha elections.

Thus, assuming that different states might behave differently in expressing disapproval through NOTA, I carried out some simple statistical test procedures, and found that Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh exhibited a significant increase in NOTA percentages; Gujarat, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan and West Bengal experienced significant declines; and Assam, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu saw no significant change.

Also, the correlation coefficient between the 2014 and 2019 NOTA percentages in India is 0.6, which can be treated as a high positive association, indicating that the constituencies which voted for NOTA in high percentages in 2014 also voted more favourably for it in 2019; and those that voted for NOTA in low percentages in 2014, also voted in low percentages in 2019, on average.

If voters believe that their negative voting to reject all contesting candidates didn’t bring the desired change, they would have forced political parties to field candidates with “integrity” by voting more strongly in favour of NOTA. On the other hand, if voters feel that the system is at the desired level, this kind of negative voting would automatically be reduced. However, surprisingly, the percentage of NOTA votes remained almost constant, and that too at a meagre one per cent. Does that reflect the confused state of voters? Or, is there a tremendous possibility just confined within the apparently tiny one per cent NOTA votes?

True, NOTA as a whole didn’t move much in either direction during the last five or six years. Many believe that unless NOTA gets teeth, its popularity will not increase and its usefulness will remain limited. As per current rules, NOTA has no electoral value. Even if 90 per cent of the votes favour NOTA, it would not prevent the candidate having the maximum votes among the contesting candidates from winning the election.

By contrast, take the example of Makassar in Indonesia where the only candidate in the 2018 election for mayor received 35,000 fewer votes than NOTA, forcing a repeat election which will be held in 2020. Things are also moving in India. In June 2018, the Maharashtra State Election Commission (SEC) issued the following order: “If it is noticed while counting that NOTA has received the highest number of valid votes, the said election for that particular seat shall be countermanded and a fresh election shall be held for such a post.”

In November 2018, the SEC of Haryana also issued an order stating that if all contesting candidates individually receive fewer votes than NOTA, not only would none of the contesting candidates be declared elected, but all such contesting candidates who secured fewer votes than NOTA would not be eligible to re-file their nomination or contest in the event of a re-election. Who knows the consequences of such an expansion of the NOTA option in the near future? And, more importantly, what would happen if such a rule is introduced by the Election Commission for the whole country?

For the time being, NOTA remains a useful tool for people who do not wish to vote for any of the candidates in an election, but are not comfortable disclosing their identities by staying at home instead.

The writer is Professor of Statistics at the Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata