Assumptions that didn't survive 2022

In a year marked by conflict and loss, silver linings were few and far between, with many statements much harder to repeat at the end of 2022 than at the beginning

The story of the year has undoubtedly been the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In spite of repeated warnings from the Western intelligence community, as 2022 began most considered a full-scale invasion of a European country to be an extremely unlikely event; only seven weeks into the new year we were forced to revise that assessment.

Multiple other assumptions also had to be revised in the light of that invasion and subsequent events. The following is just a partial list of statements that are much harder to repeat at the end of 2022 than at its beginning.

‘Russia is still a great power’: For people of my generation, it is hard to link the awe-inspiring symbols of Soviet military strength we grew up with to the ramshackle and ineffective army visible in Ukraine. The Russian Federation’s men on the ground did not look like the heirs of the army that won the greatest war in history. Instead, the Russian army was forced into three humiliating large-scale retreats and reduced shortly thereafter into mass bombing of civilian infrastructure in order to save some face. If anything, the Ukrainians — skilfully combining partisan warfare, the use of depth, maskirovka tactical deception, and the repurposing of foreign “lend-lease” equipment — look like the true inheritors of the Red Army’s mantle.

‘Europe is fragile and easily broken’: The Russian Federation’s decision-makers thought early on that the Europeans were weak, divided and dependent on Russian energy — and therefore would be unable to put together a coherent response to a war on their borders. And, yes, Europe and its Union are indeed weak, divided and dependent. Yet the European response has been far from incoherent. When it comes to sheer amounts of military hardware, the countries of Europe have less to contribute than the Americans — but that also may no longer be the case going forward. German defence spending itself increased by 50 per cent or so in 2022. If nothing else, this was the year that the legacy of the Second World War was finally put to rest — not only was the image of Russia the invincible dented beyond repair, but the losers of that war both signalled that, after decades, they would rearm.

Nor has the commitment of Europe to supporting Ukrainian ends in this war wavered as much as Moscow would have hoped. In spite of a massive short- and long-term negative shock to its economy; in spite of energy prices and shortages that will undoubtedly mean a very hard winter in which some will freeze and others go out of business; and in spite of continuing internal divisions about what “European values” actually entail, the European Union ends 2022 far more united than it was at the year’s start. Europeans and the European idea are constantly shown to be far more resilient than outsiders seem to expect.

‘China prizes sovereignty’: Many assumed the only winner of a Russia-Ukraine war would be the People’s Republic of China. And that might have been true if the war had been short and victorious. As Moscow’s main backer, it would benefit from a Russia that remained strong but unwelcome in the West. Yet as the war dragged on and Ukraine began to dominate the narrative, what many in the global south will remember is that the sole value that Beijing pretends to uphold in international affairs — sovereignty — has been violated, and China did nothing. Ten or even five years ago, you could argue that China would present an alternative international order with different, more respectful norms of behaviour. Today, it looks like there is no alternative order being proposed, merely “might makes right” disorder in which Beijing is the biggest warlord.

‘India is on the side of democracies’: Most in the West, and many in India, would have supposed that at least popular sympathy in India would be with the plucky underdog democracy being invaded by its ex-colonial master, which also happened to be something of an oligarch-ridden autocracy. Instead, even Indian politicians are surprised by the breadth of public support for Russia. We can argue about why this is the case — Nostalgia? Mistaken history? An affinity for strongmen? — but what is certain is that few will assume going forward that the world’s largest democracy will be on the side of democracies under threat.

‘The era of nation-building is over’: In 2021, the United States ignominiously betrayed the Afghan nation it had promised to defend and blamed the Afghans for its own loss of nerve. Nation-building, they implied, was a fool’s game. Vladimir Putin, who does not believe that Ukraine can be a nation because it never was a nation, must have agreed. But in 2022, we saw Western support and internal resolution recreate a nation in real time. Even most members of the Ukrainian polity marked as strongly pro-Russian prior to February 2022 became strong supporters of Ukrainian self-determination the moment tanks crossed the border. Countries that defend their existence give themselves fresh reasons to exist, and that happened in front of our eyes with Ukraine. In a year marked by conflict and loss, this is the one silver lining to which we can point.