Awaiting elections 2019 results: Is the end of the world nigh?

Whether or not May 23 heralds change, there are exaggerated hopes and fears about election results. The manner in which election results are being anticipated suggests high political anxiety.

There is a palpable fear in the air about the electoral outcome on May 23. This is unusual in a democracy where the magnetic poles of politics are reversed roughly every five years, without much fuss. No disasters followed when they flipped in the past.

Yet anxiety and worry seem to mark the wait for the results of the general election this time around. There is furtive political discussion about whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi is coming back into power, whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be limited to less than 200 seats or go beyond its past performance, should the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) be trusted, are they liable to tampering before, during or after the voting, who will be the next prime minister if the Opposition forms a coalition government, will the President act in a neutral manner and not give undue advantage to the incumbent, and whether the new government will be stable or not. Paranoic questions about the results are endless.

Many have been taken in by the confident claims of Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah in their joint press conference and are euphoric or sinking into a descending cycle of despair, according to their political predilections. Taking such positions in advance is pointless. The game is still open.

The belief that one should take seriously the claims of the Modi-Shah duo of winning “300-plus” seats assumes that they possess special political wisdom; that the duo knows something that the rest of India does not. On the other hand, the experience of the last five years shows that the people knew exactly what was wrong with the decisions taken by the Modi government. Only Prime Minister Modi and his advisors did not seem to be aware of the fact. In fact, no one has a better critique of the policies of the Modi government than those affected by them.

It may be highly premature, especially three days before the results, to talk of an impending political shift. However, there are three indications that suggest that this may be so. One, the unusual manner in which Prime Minister Modi sat quietly in his first and perhaps last press conference in this tenure -- for a full 17 minutes. Two, the rumours that a close advisor of the prime minister has or is likely to put in his papers. And three, the reports that Prime Minister Modi is expected to visit the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in Nagpur on May 20, a day after polling is concluded.

The most puzzling aspect of the silence of Prime Minister Modi at his joint “press conference” is that he let someone else hog the limelight -- BJP president Amit Shah. This is uncharacteristic as he has always wanted to be the only star in his public appearances.

Could this indicate that Prime Minister Modi’s political position has weakened? In anticipation of the reduced numbers of the BJP in the new Lok Sabha, this may be the first move of the puppet masters of the RSS to signal impending change.

Why did the BJP president hog the lime light? It may be a fallacy to assume that the Modi-Shah duo represent an unbreakable political marriage. Already after the election debacle in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, last year, there were rumours that Shah had offered to go back to Gujarat as chief minister but the offer was apparently rejected. Amit Shah would have no qualms distancing himself from Prime Minister Modi if his own political survival demanded it.

Given his grip on a thoroughly deinstitutionalised party, it would make little sense for the RSS to remove the duo at one go. Someone would still be needed to herd the party MPs in the same direction to consolidate support for a new parliamentary party leader.

Shah himself harbours ambitions of playing a larger role in national politics. This is also indicated by his desire to address rallies across the country, including in the Hindi heartland, despite his persona having little purchase there.

The possible resignation of a top advisor of the prime minister may be no more than an inspired rumour. However, his approach to running the investigative institutions of the State may find little acceptability outside the BJP if it needs an extended alliance. This particular person was believed to be behind sending central security forces at mid-night to seal the office of the then director of the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). And West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee targeted him publicly for the ham-handed manner in which the Kolkata Police Commissioner was sought to be arrested by the CBI. Jettisoning an advisor may be a small price to pay for Prime Minister Modi to retain his claim to the top job.

The third indicator of possible political change is the expected visit of Prime Minister Modi to Nagpur on May 20 -- the first in four years. The speculation is that this is to seek the blessings of the RSS bosses for a second term. There has been much discussion about the possibility of the RSS proposing an alternative leader for the top job if the party is within striking distance of power but needs the help of non-NDA parties. Nagpur is also the constituency of Nitin Gadkari who is considered the RSS favourite for the top job in such a scenario. Prime Minister Modi is believed to have assiduously avoided campaigning in Nagpur and there are rumours that there were serious efforts to see that Gadkari loses.

Whether or not May 23 heralds change, there are exaggerated hopes and fears about election results. This is nothing new. Human beings are wired for catastrophic thinking. The nervous manner in which election results are being anticipated suggests that large sections of Indians are prone to high political anxiety. However, there are no unusual celestial alignments on May 23. The world will not come to an end. Politics will continue as usual and there will be life even after the election results are declared.

Twitter: @bharatitis