Barun Roy: Dangerous ground

ASIA FILE

How could Gloria Macapagal Arroyo so easily forget the Filipino people's fight against dictatorship of which she herself was a part.

When Gloria Macapagal Arroyo replaced disgraced Philippine President Joseph Estrada in January 2001, people had doubts if she would be an effective leader. She looked so frail and fragile, a petite woman with a girlish smile, so much like the girl next door. But people power was behind her, former Presidents Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos, who had rallied the nation in February 1986, to oust dictator Ferdinand Marcos, stood by and blessed her, and the Church, the media and the civil society lent her unconditional support.

Within years, however, people started calling for her resignation. Allegations of illegal gambling payoffs began to fly against her husband, eldest son, and brother-in-law, and refuse to die. When the time came two years ago to elect her formally for a full six-year term, her popularity was on a rapid decline. She was accused of rigging the vote so massively that several disillusioned members of the Philippine Senate launched an attempt to impeach her. She survived the move only to become even more defiant.

Journalists recently asked her what it would take for her to resign. "Nothing," was her blunt reply.

She proved it. Fearing that opposition politicians and some elements of the military would try to topple her through a coup during the 20th anniversary of the people power revolution against Marcos, President Arroyo declared a state of emergency, banned rallies and marches, arrested opponents, and took control of a newspaper critical of her regime. Cory Aquino marched in protest. Ramos expressed surprise and dismay. "What Arroyo has done is contrary to the spirit of people power," he said. "In two days she destroyed everything."

Luckily for the Filipinos, Arroyo's flirting with emergency powers lasted only a week, which was a huge relief. But that hasn't stanched their doubts about her, nor has it stopped them from asking questions. Arroyo, a protégé of Cory and Ramos is the daughter of Diosdado Macapagal, who was president of the country before Marcos and known for his hatred of graft and corruption, and whose first administrative order as president was to bar government officials from giving his relatives any special favours. How could a person who has been raised in the liberal tradition and holds a PhD degree in economics, come to be so unpopular in such a short time? How could she forget the Filipino people's fight against dictatorship of which she herself was a part?

Rumours of corruption and favouritism surrounding her immediate family have been directly responsible for the widespread negative popular perception of her presidency. She herself had been caught on tape talking to the chief election commissioner before the presidential vote. When 10 of her Cabinet colleagues wanted her to resign over the cheating issue, she fired her entire team. An indignant Cory Aquino felt outraged enough to call publicly for Arroyo to quit.

Arroyo later apologised for her conduct and sent her husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, into exile in the US by way of atonement. But the Rubicon had been crossed. Public opinion was not pacified. The media's loss of faith in her was complete, the intelligentsia felt disillusioned, and if the business community has been supportive, it's out of simple self-interest.

But there may be a deeper reason why Filipinos feel disturbed by the Arroyo presidency. It's her attitude of defiance born of her apparent belief that she's the leader the nation has been waiting for, a kind of economic messiah come to deliver it from poverty and give it a presence in the world. She has told her critics in so many words that it's not she who has degenerated but the political system itself, and it needs a fundamental change.

"Bloody revolts won't deter me from leading the Philippines," she had declared in her 2001 inaugural speech. "My term would be the irretrievable turning point," she said in June 2004, delivering her state-of-the-union speech, and added: "The next six years, we hope, is when we finally get things right." Then, in an ominous warning, she told her listeners: "All that is needed is to clean away a couple of obstacles."

One obstacle, obviously, is what she had described in that speech as "unprincipled obstructionism." "We must put a stop to that," she had said.

The Constitution could be another. Arroyo has often spoken of the need to review the existing Constitution, which prescribes a presidential form of government, for the sake of "further improving the country's economy." Critics say she prefers a parliamentary system as this would free her from the bindings of a single six-year term as president and let her extend her rule as prime minister.

Will that be her next step if opposition to her regime continues to gather momentum, as it is quite likely to do after what has happened?