Beyond the dramatics

Another session of Parliament seems headed for irrelevance. The Opposition has decided to boycott the Speaker in the Lok Sabha, and the matters of most heated debate are what should be no more than brief diversions""Natwar Singh's involvement in the Iraq oil deals, Jaswant Singh's "mole"""while serious legislative business waits. This is either silly season all over again, or the dramatics are a cover for more serious games behind the scenes. The manner in which Natwar Singh, whose lies have caught up with him, has attracted attention from a variety of non-Congress parties, including at least one member of the United Progressive Alliance, does point to a search for fresh political groupings. The glue of the moment is anti-Americanism, and born out of a desire to scuttle the Indo-US deal on nuclear energy. But politics is never a single-issue matter, and alliances that are formed usually have a larger objective.

Some straws in the wind suggest that re-alignments should not be ruled out. As one exercise in brinkmanship, the Left has pushed to the limit its insistence on a "sense of Parliament" resolution on the nuclear deal. Any such resolution would clearly be critical of the deal, and with the backing of the Left as well as the Opposition, it would be adopted without difficulty. Given how committed the Prime Minister has been to seeing the deal through, the government would then be forced to resign. The Congress naturally dug in its heels, but the Left has not yet given clear signals that it has given up the idea of a face-off. This is one area of uncertainty.

Another possible spark has to do with reservations. Arjun Singh's calculated decision to precipitate the issue must be seen as a clever move to position himself as a champion of the Other Backward Castes""with the sub-text being a putative challenge to the Prime Minister. Manmohan Singh has once again striven hard to limit the damage, without being seen as anti-OBC, and he has used the same ploy that he used successfully when it came to the rural employment guarantee""first delay and then stagger implementation through a phased programme. But if reports are to be believed, Mr Karunanidhi, the leader of the DMK, has written to Dr Singh and asked for immediate and full implementation of reservation for OBCs. A fresh confrontation cannot therefore be ruled out. The last time they locked eyeballs, Dr Singh had to back down and Mr Karunanidhi carried the day on the selling of Neyveli Lignite shares. If Dr Singh is pushed hard once again and made to eat humble pie, those pitching quietly for a change of leadership at the Centre may get what they want.

Matters are not helped when the Congress party is seen as being less than fully supportive of the government's policy initiatives. Sonia Gandhi's leaked warning against regional trade agreements, the party's criticism of the hike in petrol and diesel prices, and a number of other instances point to the main party that is in government also taking on the role of the opposition. It is only now that Ms Gandhi has declared, while on the stump in Uttar Pradesh, that she is proud of what Dr Singh is doing as Prime Minister. That should settle things down within the party for a while, and dash the hopes of any Congress politician who may have hoped to make a pitch for occupying the hot seat, but the larger issue of the government and party not quite seeing eye to eye remains.

The final area of concern is the Office of Profit Bill, which has been sent back to the President without modification. Mr Kalam has sat on the Bill for more than a week. It must be hoped that he will limit himself to his Constitutional role and sign the Bill (however flawed it may be) into law without further demur, but the delay in doing that raises its own questions. Is the government ready to deal with the fall-out of some kind of Presidential protest?

None of the posturing and parleying may crystallise into concrete moves, but the signs do suggest that, beneath the surface, politicians are re-doing their calculations.