Beyond the theatre of war

The war between Russia and Ukraine might end soon. It might not. But the effects will linger long after it has ended. And not just in Ukraine or Russia. Right here, in South Asia too. The pattern of the voting in the UN General Assembly showed some of the stresses and strains.

Consider India’s neighbours. Just when tiny Sri Lanka was hoping the decline in Covid-19 infections could mean a return of Russian tourists, the war has put paid to it. While Indians top the list of tourists to the island, followed by the Chinese, both markets have been a bit sluggish, thought to have reached a plateau. But growth in inbound Russian tourists has been the fastest. In February this year, Sri Lanka got 96,507 tourists, up from 82,327 in January. The stream was led by Russia, with more than 15,300, and Ukraine with 5,600. India sent only 12,700. For the moment, Colombo has extended by two months the visas of the guests whose countries are at war, hoping they will stay and praying they will spend.

Never has Colombo needed the money more. Power cuts are extensive on an island that had almost forgotten about them. Now, as oil prices soar, the tiny island will have to shell out twice as many precious dollars as before for the same amount of oil. Thirty per cent of the tea Russians drink comes from Sri Lanka. In January 2022, Russia bought 2.5 million kilograms of tea from Sri Lanka, becoming the second-largest buyer. How will the island cope with the sanctions? With foreign remittances already down, and labour markets in West Asia showing no signs of recovery, with foreign exchange reserves at a historic low and another tranche of sovereign bonds coming up for redemption in July, an extended war spells ruination for the Emerald Isle.

Bangladesh and Pakistan also abstained at the General Assembly — for reasons of their own. Russia is an important defence equipment supplier to Bangladesh. In 2015, Moscow committed more than $12 billion to Bangladesh to build a nuclear power plant, which should be completed in 2023.

Pakistan proved true to type. Prime Minister Imran Khan, who, inexplicably, was in Russia hours before the conflict broke out, although he must have known it was imminent, returned home to announce a fuel and power tariff cut. “I received a summary from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) and they recommended increasing the prices of petrol and diesel by 10 rupees due to the price hike in global markets,” he said in an address to the nation. “Today I want to tell you guys this good news that, instead of increasing it, we will decrease [petrol prices] by 10 rupees.” The explanation lies in four digits: 2023, when Pakistan holds general elections. In the same speech, he rued the day Islamabad agreed to participate in the US-led “war on terror”. “From day one, I said that we should not have participated [in the US war],” he said. “The most embarrassing part was that, for the first time in history, a country was fighting in support of a country that was bombing it.”

However, the gritty Maldives stood up for Ukraine and chose a path that was independent of both India and China. Its heroism has to be lauded. It has everything to lose by annoying Russia: At the end of 2021, 220,000 tourists from Russia visited the Maldives. This figure is 2.7 times higher than the previous record of 2019. Every sixth tourist on the islands was Russian. These are wealthy visitors, big spenders. The Maldives produces nothing but fish —and tourist resorts. So it imports everything. But “as a small state”, the Maldives “has always taken a principled stand on violations of the territorial integrity of a sovereign country,” Thilmeeza Hussain, the Maldives’ ambassador to the UN, said. “We know we do not possess powerful weapons of destruction; instead we rely on our principles and the solidarity of nations.”

In the same square as the Maldives were Nepal and Bhutan, both prompted by domestic concerns. There is a new, perceptible shift in Nepal’s foreign policy stance. It is no longer endorsing China or following India blindly. Hours before the vote, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to congratulate him on securing parliamentary ratification for the deal with American company Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC). The ratification needed some very skilful political navigation. China has been rattling sabres in Kathmandu over the US’s ingress. But Nepal opted to go with the West. Bhutan too steered a course independent of India and China. “Perched atop the Himalayas, even the folds of the mighty mountains cannot shield our country from the reverberations of this conflict,” Bhutan’s ambassador to the UN, Doma Tshering, said, adding that international security was in danger far beyond the borders of Europe and “we cannot condone the unilateral drawing of international borders”. Bhutan is wearing a shoe that pinches, as recent events in Doklam have shown.

No one in South Asia wants the war to continue. But some want it to end quickly more than others.