The Congress party's "generous" offer of support recognises that an Arvind Kejriwal is a bigger threat to them than a Narendra Modi. Kejriwal will cut into the Congress votes, while Modi's polarisation could actually consolidate crucial pockets of Congress votes.
That is perhaps why while offering support to Kejriwal in Delhi, the Congress has moved swiftly on two other fronts. It has passed the Lok Pal Bill in Parliament in a bid to snatch away the raison d'etre of the AAP for accountability in governance. Simultaneously, it has also opened communication with the AAP's bête noir Anna Hazare.
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The attempt is to rehabilitate the government and Congress scion Rahul Gandhi with the middle classes, the backbone of Hazare's Lok Pal agitation two years ago.
With the AAP's main political plank demanding a Lok Pal virtually gone, the party is struggling to react to the tricky situation with which it is confronted. It seems to lack political boldness and is hampered by inexperience.
When social movements convert themselves into political parties, they face the kind of dilemma the AAP is in now. They are so obsessed with their own agenda that they find it difficult to deal with other political parties whom they suspect of being corrupt, inept and inefficient. They find it even more difficult to be in positions of governance.
In the case of non-governmental organisations (NGOs), the transformation from the oppositional space to governance is even harder. The best NGOs are run by highly motivated individuals who become iconic figures. The way they run their organisations and determine their agenda is almost autocratic.
NGO activists function best as pressure groups. Many have transited to advising governments in their individual areas of expertise. That the State has benefited from their advice is apparent from NGO representatives being nominated by successive governments to the Planning Commission or the National Advisory Council.
Without taking anything away from the immense contribution that NGOs make to Indian society, it is important to note how they are different from political parties. Political parties cannot afford to be self-righteous unless they are at the extreme ends of the political spectrum. They are deft in correcting their orientation by tasting the wind. And they do so without any fanfare.
The AAP is a half-way house between an NGO and a political party. The qualities that are sources of strength in an NGO - an agenda set by a motivated leader and a refusal to compromise - can prove to be weaknesses in the democratic political arena where issues are much more dynamic and sub-optimal compromises necessary. That is why it is difficult to say whether Delhi would see a new government within the next week or so.
The progression of statements from AAP leaders about government formation would suggest that they are veering towards assuming power. Their stance that they would neither give nor accept support from any party was diluted the day the AAP wrote to the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), setting 18 pre-conditions for accepting their support. When the Congress offered support to implement its demands, its stand was further diluted by the decision to seek public opinion on whether to accept the offer. Some 270 public meetings are planned in all the wards of the capital, 25,000 letters are being sent to supporters and opinions sought through social media and text messages.
If general elections weren't due for a year or two, the AAP might have taken the support of the Congress without the ruse of a public consultation. But with the Lok Sabha elections scheduled in less than six months, the AAP thinks that it needs a face-saver to accept or reject the Congress offer.
Perhaps, it is also afraid that the outside support offered by the Congress may be for as short as six months and, at any rate, could be withdrawn at a time of the Congress's choosing. Having promised free water and halving the existing electricity rates, they may end up destroying the water and electricity supply system of the capital in the process. They will also have to contend with the formidable inertia of the bureaucracy and it may not be overcome in the time that the new government would have in hand. If it is unable to deliver, the party's electoral prospects in the Lok Sabha elections would be significantly eroded.
On the other hand, the AAP leaders want to be cautious about how they reject the Congress offer. They think that they can sustain their honeymoon with the voters for another six months (till the re-election in Delhi and the Lok Sabha elections) only if they can show they do not want to have any truck with the Congress.
While consulting one's constituents is always good for a party, political dilemmas have to be resolved by showing leadership and not by determining the lowest common denominator using questionable opinion polls. Bold moves alone lead to political paradigm shifts.
The AAP leadership needs to decide whether it wants to try and deliver on its promise of cheaper "bijli- paani" (electricity-water) by running a hobbled government in Delhi or bid for the political space that has opened up nationwide. Greater political changes are afoot in the electorate looking for an alternative to the Congress and the BJP than a simple desire for free water and cheap electricity or even a Lok Pal. The AAP leaders must try and catch that wind in their sails. They have won the battle of public perceptions by painting existing parties as irredeemably corrupt. They should desist from doing anything which negates that campaign advantage.