Bravehearts on board

What happens after the initial pent-up demand for air travel wanes?

Phew! Amidst utter confusion, chaos, anger and uncertainty, flights actually took off yesterday across India, barring An­dh­ra Pradesh and cyclone-hit West Be­ngal. Going by the photos received over Wha­tsApp, several bravehearted, alien-like passengers, greeted and aided by other alien-like creatures, boarded flights. The scenes looked uncannily like one of the trashy Hollywood films on alien invasion.

At the time of penning this down, almost 100 flights had taken off, with many airlines claiming a passenger load of 50 per cent or more. In all, it was expected that by the end of the day, 400 flights would operate across India, a fraction of the usual, but a start nonetheless. Barring Go Air — that chose to wait and watch — all the players resumed operations. The bullet had finally been bitten.

Events surrounding Indian aviation and the airlines in the last few weeks could be a scene out of a Theatre of the Absurd. This is true for the whole country, but I will stick to the aviation sector for the moment.
 

Days before, the decision to reopen the skies was filled with chaos as the Centre, led by Civil Aviation Minister Hardeep Puri — appearing to having jumped the gun — announced resumption of flights without consulting the states, each of which was grappling with its own crisis. In fact, till the evening of May 24, airlines were all dressed up with nowhere to go since many states including Maharashtra were refusing to permit flights at all. High-level drama and persuasion between the two ensued, convincing several states to fall in line, albeit reluctantly.

At a macro level, there were several baffling announcements that I failed to comprehend altogether. One was the insistence of certain states that passengers who arrived would have to be quarantined for a varied (depending on the state) number of days. Will I leave Delhi for a proposed meeting in say Ahmedabad and stay seven days in quarantine before I actually meet the person I had set out to meet? Who in their right mind would do this unless it’s a matter of life and death? A test or wait period on returning to my home state may still be more palatable.

Moreover, if trains are already plying and people are moving around freely in some states after a train ride, why quarantine those who disembark a plane? Is there greater danger of an aircraft passenger carrying or contracting the coronavirus than one who has been on a train? How else are some states reporting increased cases of infection on account of returnees who have presumably travelled by train or road?
 

The fate of air passengers arriving at various destinations remained unclear even as this went to press. Set free to roam the streets or thrown into an institutional quarantine facility? Taxi outside the airport to reach their destinations or a long walk ahead? I’d get a fever just contemplating the possibilities! That’s why I refer to the passengers as bravehearts.

The revival package announced for the aviation sector too remained a mystery. What precisely do privatising more airports or trying to position India as a regional maintenance, repair and overhaul hub have to do with the present predicament of airlines? I, for one, missed the direct link. And while the idea of al­lowing aircraft to fly over reserved de­fence airspace is a cute one, it doesn’t help anyone if the aircraft flying is relatively empty. Airlines will certainly save a bit of money on fuel with better airspace management but only if they have eno­ugh passengers sitting in them! In other words, loads are critical, not the route.

The government appears to have overlooked the most critical issue: Air­lines in India are operating with wafer-thin bank balances. Most countries around the world have announced direct cash relief for the industry. Two unpleasant facts are already looming for airlines in India — one is a pending Supreme Court decision on passenger refunds that could cost it $300 million and the other is the onset of the generally weak quarter of July-September.

This brings me to the crux. Loads may be high in the first few weeks post lockdown, but will this be sustained as the weeks roll on? No tourist traffic is expected for a while. Once the essential pent-up travel demand dies down, who in their right minds will want to board airplanes unless you are an “addict” (usually men, early to mid 40-50s age group and those who crave airline food).

For a majority, flying is something you do out of compulsion. In the present situation, many would agree to fly only if you point a gun to their heads. Squishy carpets at airports, sanitising the soles of one’s shoes, notwithstanding.