Breathing fresh air into the next govt

A coalition is India's best hope. It will be slow to move, but will lead to a consensual and collaborative form of governance

Opinion polls, the last of which came about a month ago, have predicted a majority for the National Democratic Alliance, with roughly a 220-seat return for the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP). The data had been gathered a few weeks before that, and it was apparent that several of the polls were unsure of the direction of the momentum. That is to say, whether the trajectory of the BJP was from 220 towards 272 or away from it. It seems too tight an election in a couple of places, Uttar Pradesh in particular, for there to be conviction that it was a one-horse race as it was in 2014.

But assuming that the original polls are accurate and hold, we should anticipate a return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and almost certainly a return also of Narendra Modi as prime minister. My view is that the BJP would benefit greatly from being in a coalition. Without beating about the bush, the reason is that its tendencies towards extremism will stand tempered. Moves that are touched by non-conformist freethinking (which is a polite word for some of the eccentric policies) will be more difficult to pull off with the restraining hand of allies on the wrist. 

It may be that many of us want to put all Central authority in one individual. But some of us are uncomfortable with a government which believes that nuclear weapons are akin to firecrackers and exist because they are to be used. Others are astonished that we have thrown away any semblance of strategic thinking in our national security and have substituted it with throwing the random kick in the direction of a neighbour. We need not go into details.

We need not pursue other examples, especially on the side of the economy, because they have been discussed here on these pages before. Suffice it to say that it will not be difficult to demonstrate that five years of messianic and strong and decisive leadership has brought its share of headaches. This sort of thing, the coalition, even if it is led by the same individual, will help curb because the interests of several parties and different regions will need to be accommodated in the larger picture.

A coalition will be slow to move, yes, and less decisive, but it will also lead to a consensual and collaborative form of government. What I mean is that ministerial input and resistance to things that are unusual and not necessarily productive are currently missing. If we survey the elite of this government — Jaitley, Goel, Sitharaman, Prabhu — they are creatures of the Rajya Sabha and unable to win elections. They cannot resist the command of strong leadership because they have no popular base and no real political legitimacy and therefore no authority on which to premise the resistance, even though it is well-meaning. A coalition will have fewer such individuals because the factions within the party will also assert themselves and seek a share of the decision-making. These then are the reasons why a coalition will be good not just for the nation but also the party itself, when in government. 

On the other hand, the thing that the BJP says it is competent at delivering — governance — is not particularly touched negatively by coalition politics. One can continue doing good governance (with whatever secret sauce is in the possession of the BJP or the prime minister) through interaction with the structure of the administration. 

A third reason why a coalition is good for the party is that it will give moderates in the BJP, if they exist, and it is possible that at least a few do, the space to counter the extremists on the question of bludgeoning other Indians because of their faith. And they can do this on the basis of party doctrine. It may interest readers to know that the BJP’s membership form requires the taking of a pledge that contains the line: “I subscribe to the concept of a Secular state and Nation not based on religion.” No Hindu Rashtra is being promised or being sought here and the BJP claims it does not campaign for a constitutional shift or for a change in the secular contours of the state. In fact, it pledges rigid adherence to the Constitution of India. At the very beginning of its party constitution, the BJP promises it will “bear true faith and allegiance to the Constitution of India as by law established and to the principles of socialism, secularism and democracy…”

The party’s membership form also requires the BJP and its members to be “committed to Nationalism, National Integration, Democracy, Gandhian approach to socio-economic issues leading to the establishment of an egalitarian society free from exploitation, positive secularism (Sarva Dharma Samabhav) and value-based politics.”

Illustration: Binay Sinha

This makes it easier for those inside to curb the wilder elements by pointing to the party’s stated position. This has been under threat for some time because the cues have been taken from individuals and not the party doctrine (I am sure that the lines above on the BJP’s pledge and charter will have surprised quite a few readers). 

Indeed a coalition will give many in the BJP and its affiliates and associates the chance to breathe more freely and speak more freely. I was on a television panel the other day, with an RSS man next to me, no doubt to balance my zealotry. During the break, I asked him if he and others in his organisation were comfortable with such concentration of power in one individual as is the case in this government. He said, “I’ll speak to you later about this.” I informed him that the break was for five minutes and we had plenty of time. He leaned across and whispered, “Not while we are still miked.”

This may be paranoia but it exists. Every leader and spook I speak to today wants to communicate only through secure applications. A division of power would bring sunlight into such spaces. At 282 seats, it is easy to be Narendra Modi. It will be interesting to see if at 210, he can be Manmohan Singh.