China: flying high

ASIA FILE/ Its simply amazing how mobile the Chinese have become

Air travel in China, he predicts, will grow by at least 9.3 per cent annually between now and 2020, against the expected world average of 4.7 per cent, which means more sales. Big sales.

By all accounts, China is one of the fastest growing aviation markets in the world today. Its 25 major airlines operate 1,004 planes of various types, ten times the number of India's total fleet of 124.

Boeing's own calculation is that, in the next 20 years, China (including Hong Kong and Macau) will need 1,764 commercial jets worth $ 144 billion, most of them to fly on domestic routes and replace existing single-aisle airplanes. By 2020, it is said, Chinese carriers will be flying some 2,020 planes, making the country the largest commercial aviation market outside the US.

Passenger loads are simply exploding, as much for outsiders coming in as for locals going out. Fifty-seven international airlines from 45 countries currently offer flights to China while 11 Chinese airlines fly to 62 cities in 32 countries. This is hardly surprising.

Over 30 million Chinese go abroad annually and 89 million tourists visited China last year. Of course, most locals go to Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan, and most inbound tourists come from those places. But no matter where the tourists go to or come from, they fill up seats and keep the airlines busy.

China Southern, the country's largest airline based in Guangzhou, alone carried 19 million passengers last year and reported a 90 per cent passenger load factor for December on its transpacific service to the US. Shanghai-based China Eastern, which has just begun flying to New Delhi, carried 10.4 million.

Everybody expects these numbers to soar even higher, especially with China's entry into the World Trade Organisation. It's simply amazing how mobile the Chinese have become. They not only are travelling abroad in greater numbers, they are also flying more to travel within the country, an indication of their growing affluence.

At the same time, foreigners continue to favour China as a destination. Last year, 11 million non-Hong Kong, non-Macau, and non-Taiwan tourists visited the country. Americans, in particular, appreciate the fact that it is untouched by international terrorism.

All this has driven China into a frenzy of airport-building activity. In the last 12 years alone, 25 new airports were built and 48 existing ones were upgraded, and the annual passenger transport volume through the country's 176 airports "" 19 of which can accommodate the world's largest planes "" exceeds 170 million.

By 2015, there will be 200 airports in China. But, under a proposed restructuring of the Chinese airline industry, three airports will form the pivots of the entire national network: Beijing Capital, Shanghai Hongqiao/Shanghai Pudong, and Guangzhou Baiyun.

Beijing Capital International Airport, which handled 25 million passengers last year and where a $ 1.1 billion terminal was opened in September 1999 with 3.9 million sq ft of space, is in the midst of a 15-billion-yuan expansion.

The idea is to prepare the airport for an expected passenger volume of 48 million by the time of the 2008 Olympics. Eventually, Beijing may end up with a second international airport and a study has been initiated to examine its feasibility.

Together, Shanghai Honqiao and Shanghai Pudong "" gateways to one of China's rapidly growing economic regions "" reported a throughput of 20.65 million passengers last year. By 2005, they are expected to handle 32 million passengers and 1.8 million tons of cargo annually. And all the plans are on track to make Pudong an Asian flight hub by 2010.

The Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is currently the second busiest in China based on passenger flow and third largest for cargo. It has two runways and a third is planned. By 2010, when the 20-billion-yuan airport is finished, it will be able to handle 80 million arrivals and departures and 2.5 million tons of cargo annually.

The restructuring will also create three major airline groups around the three pivotal airports: Air China around Beijing Capital, China Eastern around Shanghai Hongqiao/Shanghai Pudong, and China Southern around Guangzhou Baiyun. These groups will coordinate with all other airlines in their respective zones to improve network efficiency and competitiveness.

All three have ambitious plans to acquire new aircraft and beef up their international services. China Southern, in particular, with its 68-city domestic network and a reputation for excellent in-flight service, is strongly positioned for the US market.

Its flights-into-trucking system, under which flight numbers are placed on secured and bonded trucks, allows it to move cargo quickly to airport destinations across the US.