Chiranjibi Poudyal: A Himalayan impasse

It has become a daily event in the streets of Kathmandu. For the last three weeks demonstrators have been gathering for mass rallies demanding the recall of parliament and the restoration of the elected government.

The Government has responded with a ban on demonstrations and a tough police crackdown on people in the streets. On the first two days 2,000 demonstrators were arrested.

That pattern has been repeated almost daily. A few days ago students at Tribhuvan University joined the fray by tearing down photographs of King Gyanendra.

About 200 were arrested. The large number of arrests is a measure of how serious the situation has become. These are the biggest demonstrations since 1990 when protestors forced the abolition of the absolute monarchy.

And the protests have been backed by the kingdom's five top political parties including the Nepali Congress. These political parties have also been joined by professional organisations of lawyers, doctors, journalists, engineers and teachers.

As the protests gain momentum they've spread to other towns. And the demonstrators have been openly raising slogans against the king.

The political parties accuse the King of creating an environment of instability and then blaming the politicians for the situation. The result is that the rift between the King and the political parties is increasing day-by-day.

For two weeks this month he has been touring the districts and didn't return despite the daily protests. What's more, there's no sign that either side is ready to back off from a tough stand.

Meanwhile, as the demonstrators throng the streets of cities like Kathmandu, the Maoists are creating chaos in large swathes of the country.

The split between the King and the political parties has thrown the spanner in the works for the talks with the Maoists who want wholescale amendments to the constitution. Also, the three sides are now highly suspicious of each other.

What positions are the three sides taking? The pro-royalists feel that the monarchy will not have a future in a democracy.

Meanwhile, the political parties want a strictly constitutional monarchy and they feel the king "" who says he wants to be a constitutional monarch "" is not matching words with deeds. The Maoists who don't accept the current system are using the June 2001 Palace massacre to defame the King "" and it must be said they have succeeded to an extent.

What has happened in the kingdom? Ever since democracy was restored in 1990 there has been a constant tug-of-war between the country's democratic forces and the ruling elite, which was unappy about the restoration of democracy. The elite found itself sidelined during the 12 years of multi-party democracy.

During this period the nation made considerable progress in areas like education, health, communication, infrastructure building and awareness generation.

But this didn't not suit the feudal elite which suddenly found itself unable to influence affairs. It was in this scenario that the elected government of Sher Bahdur Deuba was sacked in October 2002 plunging the country into one crisis after another.

The appointments of two royalist governments worsened the situation. The political parties consider the king-appointed government unconstitutional and even refuse to hold talks on any issue. The King accuses the political parties of bad governance and rampant corruption during the 12 years of multi-party rule.

The violence is, inevitably, affecting trade with India. Last month the Indian Government arrested Maoist leader Mohan Baidhya in Darjeeling. As a result the Maoists have begun targetingt Indian business interests in Nepal. The worst incident so far took place in the first week of April when the Maoists set fire to 19 Indian oil tankers.

There have been other incidents too affecting Indian businesses. Companies like Dabur Nepal, Surya Tobacco and Nepal Lever have all been bombed by the Maoists. "About 20 percent of our business has been affected due to the Maoist activity," said an Indian businessmen in Kathmandu on condition ofanonymity.

India is, of course, Nepal's biggest trading partner. Out of Nepal's global exports of Rs 57 billion, Rs 27 billion (nearly 47 percent) to India. Similarly, 42 percent of Nepal's imports were from India last year.

Currently, there are over 265 approved Indian joint ventures in Nepal of which 100 are operational. These joint ventures are in practically every sector from tourism to garments, carpets and infrastructure.

A number of Indian companies like Dabur, Hindustan Lever and Colgate have established manufacturing bases in Nepal to export finished products to India.

"We are facing difficulties and we have no plan of further investment in Nepal due to the political instability,'' said a senior official of an Indian company that has invested in Nepal.

King Gyanendra said last month that elections would by held by next April and said that power would then be handed over the country's new elected representatives. But holding elections will be tough given the deteriorating law and order situation where the Maoists are stepping up activities like abducation, extortion and murder.

What are the solutions to the current crisis? The short-term solution to the present crisis is that parliament should be reinstated and a broad-based government formed. That would make it possible to re-start talks with the Maoists to end the nine-year insurgency in the Himalayan kingdom which has so far claimed more than 9,000 lives and damaged property of worth over Rs 6 billion.

For a long-term solution, the Maoists must be brought to the mainstream of politics through negotiations. Their main demand is a Constituent Assembly. But if the political parties and the King stay together it might be possible to exert strong pressure on the Maoists. Holding elections by resolving the Maoist problem will be the long-term solution.

The fact is that despite the current anti-monarchist sentiments among the younger people, there are still many who consider the King a symbol of unity. Peace and democracy are possible under the constitutional monarchy "" if the King matches deed and word.and deeds match.

Any efforts to separate peace and democracy will not be the long-term solution. Now the ball is in the King's court and the future of the nation and monarchy depends on how the King kicks the ball.