 "<b>Claude Smadja:</b> Trump: Reshuffling the deck of cards")
It is a measure of the disarray in which the election of Donald Trump has plunged Europe that some circles on the continent have fancied themselves into the notion that it would now fall on German Chancellor Merkel to be the standard bearer of western values and champion of the western world. Mrs Merkel has her hands full at home, with a populist surge, an infrastructure in dire need of revamping, a huge mass of migrants nowhere near to be integrated, a public opinion which does not want the risks or the burdens of a leading role on the international scene. And, the chancellor will have to face in 2017 a pan euro zone revolt against Berlin-imposed austerity policies.
So back to reality. And the reality is that a Trump presidency will force Europe —every country in Europe — to make major adjustments in the coming period. Fears that the new US president will want to get rid of NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) are most certainly unwarranted. However, the era of Europe piggybacking on the US for an almost cost-free defence against external threats is coming to an end. Every single US president in the last 25 years has recriminated against European members of NATO not assuming their fair share of the financial burden of sustaining the military credibility of the Atlantic Alliance. While the US spends 3.61 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defence, only four European NATO members (Estonia and Greece among them!) meet the requirement of devoting two per cent of GDP to military expenses.
Mr Trump predecessors — Barack Obama included — fumed against this situation but did not act upon their frustration. Expect President Trump to take action. European capitals need to brace themselves for some “strong” American arm-twisting to start, at long last, to honour their military budget commitment. This would correct an anomaly increasingly difficult to sustain. And, this could even prove to be beneficial to Europe as it would force greater coordination and efficiency in the European defence and technology sector.
European countries will also have to reassess their policy towards Russia. The new US leader has made no mystery of his intention to find a new modus vivendi with Vladimir Putin and it is not at all clear whether he will continue the sanctions enacted by Washington and the EU as a response to the annexation of Crimea and Russia’s military encroachment in Ukraine. The European leaders have made it clear that since the situation that triggered sanctions has not changed and that the Minsk accords are not respected then these sanctions, due to expire on January 31, will be renewed for another six months. However, some EU countries are balking at the cost of the sanctions for their economies and it remains to be seen if European cohesion will be sustained should Mr Trump reverse the hard line approach of Mr Obama and opt for a realpolitik deal with the Russian leader.
Another major implication of a Trump presidency with which the Europeans will be hard-pressed to deal with is Syria. The Obama administration wanted, at the same time, to destroy the Islamic State and to bring down current President Bashar al-Assad — two antagonistic goals given the realities on the ground. This, in turn, led to a complete failure and provided Moscow an opening to reinsert itself as a key player in the Middle East. Mr Trump has made his choice on Syria: For him, the Islamic State is the primary threat on which the US should focus, not the regime change in Damascus. Moral consideration on the nature of the Assad regime will be set aside since he does not represent any direct threat to the US. The new president will look at an alliance of convenience with Mr Putin against a common threat. That will leave the European countries in a strategic no man’s land, as they don’t have the means — on their own — to bring down Mr Assad. Their condemnations of the Syrian dictator will sound increasingly hollow in the face of the resilience of a ruler ready to go to any extremes, with the support of Tehran and Moscow, to maintain his power on what is left of his country.
In the same way, many Asian countries have now to face up to the implications of a Trump presidency. They had been looking at the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as a major step for reinforcing the US presence in the Asia-Pacific region — a key pillar of the much touted “pivot to Asia” — while opening new opportunities for trade and economic interaction. With Mr Trump having vowed to scrap TPP, they find themselves hanging high and dry with the prospect of a more protectionist US stance and new concerns about access to the US market and possible trade wars. In addition to that, uncertainties about the sustainability and reliability of the US military commitment in East Asia are bound to make them consider all their options vis-à-vis China.
Illustration by Binay Sinha
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Much has been said about Mr Trump breaking with the tradition of the US being the guarantor of the global world order. However, the transition from the era of the US as policeman of the world had already started with Obama’s approach to foreign policy and his not very convincing “leading from behind” tactic. The notion of one nation — as militarily, technologically and financially powerful as it might be — being the guarantor of the world order has become increasingly unsustainable as new actors and new factors are reshaping the geopolitical landscape.
Trump’s “America first“ does not need to mean America retreating from the world, as compelling realities make this a non-option. But, this means a less messianic America. The world can live with that, provided that the people around President Trump can prevent damaging wild policy swings, dispel any nonsensical notion that you can run a country like you manage a business, and avoid any amateurish and suicidal notion that realpolitik means a narrow and simplistic short-term approach devoid of a larger vision about the future of a country and its role in the world.
Claude Smadja is President of Smadja & Smadja, a Strategic Advisory Firm
Twitter: @ClaudeSmadja