Cloud over climate action

India may have to handle the new goalpost of carbon neutrality

A significant takeaway from the meeting of John Kerry, the visiting US presidential climate envoy, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the explicit pronouncement of US support for India’s climate action plans by facilitating affordable access to green technologies and finance. Though this seems to be a considered response to India being one of the few countries on track to meet its self-declared commitments for climate change mitigation action, its implications go wider. As Mr Modi said, the US help in financing innovations and faster deployment of green technologies would have a positive effect on other countries as well.

But beyond the diplomatic niceties, the fact is that the road ahead for climate action by India and other similarly-placed countries might be quite difficult because they would be required to make more stringent and result-oriented commitments for the post-2020 period. The plan of action for that phase is to be firmed up at the 26th UN climate summit (COP 26) at Glasgow in November. With the US rejoining the Paris accord and resuming the leadership role in setting the global climate agenda, the goalpost may shift from emission reduction to carbon neutrality (zero net carbon addition). The signatories to the Paris accord may, therefore, be spurred to set deadlines for achieving carbon neutrality. The pressure for doing so may start building during the virtual summit on climate change convened by US President Joe Biden on April 22-23, much ahead of the COP 26 in Glasgow. Mr Modi has also been invited for it.

India’s track record on climate action is fairly impressive and Mr Kerry has acknowledged it. The overall emission intensity of India’s economy has shrunk by as much as 24 per cent since 2006, which is in line with the target of slashing emissions by 20-25 per cent by 2020 and 33-35 per cent by 2030. Energy is, in fact, the only key sector where the discharges are swelling and have reached 75 per cent of emissions. The share of industry and construction is almost constant at 8 per cent and that of the waste-handling sector at 3 per cent. The most noteworthy is the sharp decline in the share of the agriculture and livestock sectors, from 18 per cent in 2010 to 16 per cent in 2014 and to 14 per cent in 2016. India’s paddy fields and massive livestock population have often been assailed for generating methane and other gases. The drop in these emissions reflects more efficient use of water and fertiliser in farming and better feed and fodder for farm animals.

However, these achievements would merely be of academic interest when the goalpost to carbon neutrality changes. The US is expected to pledge making its energy sector carbon-neutral by 2035 and the rest of the economy by 2050. The announcement seems likely in the Biden-sponsored virtual climate summit later this month. China has mooted carbon neutrality by 2060. The pressure would now be on India and other middle-income economies to follow suit. Given their development imperatives, they cannot be too comfortable in doing so. India, thanks to its huge energy needs, cannot consider phasing out thermal power plants anytime soon regardless of significant strides in the renewable energy sector. It would, therefore, need to buy time before taking a call on carbon neutrality.