Market sentiment

Corporate India is expected to do well

India is expected to grow at a faster pace than the rest of the world does in 2023, but this piece of good news is tempered by fears that the global economy isn’t in good shape. Inflation is high and most central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India, are increasing policy rates and tightening liquidity. There are major supply-chain worries across fossil fuels, industrial metals, and even food due to the Ukraine war. China is struggling to contain a resurgence of Covid, and this may dampen global economic activity. The Ukraine war may also trigger further geopolitical tensions. All this could mean weak global demand. On the domestic front, policy could be driven by electoral considerations with a series of Assembly elections scheduled for 2023, followed by the Lok Sabha elections next year. This could mean populist measures rather than attempts to tackle issues such as the fiscal deficit and losses in the power sector.
 

However, the consensus opinion is that corporate India will continue to do well as activity recovers and private consumption picks up. Banks, including public-sector banks, and non-bank financial companies are in good shape and are expected to benefit from rising demand for credit. The automobile sector has seen nascent demand recovery, including in segments like two-wheelers and tractors, which indicate a rebound in rural consumption. Other high-frequency indicators, such as power consumption, rising shipments of goods through railways and ports, higher airline passenger movements, and strong goods and services tax collection, all point to a trend of acceleration. In most business segments, corporate financials indicate sales are now surpassing pre-Covid levels. Renewables remain an area of high investment and there are new opportunities here in the race to develop green hydrogen as a new source of power, to build giga-factories to supply electric-vehicle batteries and other components.
 

One new area of growth is the roll-out of 5G and satellite broadband — it remains to be seen how swiftly businesses develop use-cases around these new, high-speed networks. But this cannot be bad for the burgeoning e-commerce sector, for example, quite apart from the direct impact on the telecommunications sector. Policy changes through the past two years should lead to a boost in activity across sectors like aerospace and defence, where the private and public sectors now have new opportunities. Other policy changes such as incentives encouraging semiconductor manufacture may have longer gestation periods. In 2022, returns from equities tapered off, though the Nifty hit new record highs and ended in nominally positive territory with a return of 4 per cent. Inflation-adjusted, that’s a negative return. Debt markets, too, have turned cautious because rates have risen, and the strong dollar has kept gold prices down.
 

Among alternative assets, the cryptocurrency market has gone into free fall with scandals besetting the largest crypto exchanges. Prices of fossil fuels remain high and may continue at higher levels until the Ukraine war ends. Industrial metals have seen steep corrections as global demand has fallen. Given tighter monetary conditions, a lot of investors, especially foreign investors, would be looking at “risk-off” scenarios such as hard-currency treasuries. India might see corrections in the equity markets and very selective investment until an economic rebound is clearly visible. Politics and geopolitics will influence market sentiment.