Could dirty tricks bring down Congress' state govts before polls?

The BJP may try to create a narrative of Congress' inability to provide stable governance

As the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) searches for a new narrative in the run up to the coming general election, the inability of the Congress to provide stable governance is likely to be an important part of it. 

Rumours are strong that that the BJP may engineer the fall of a Congress led state government either in Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan -- or even in Karnataka where the Congress is governing in an alliance. 

The outgoing chief minister in MP, Shivraj Singh Chouhan had said that he does not believe in politics of horse-trading. However, equally, a BJP MP from the state reportedly told some journalists informally that if his party wants, it can bring down the government over the election of the Speaker on the first day of the assembly session.

Of the 230 legislators in MP assembly, the Congress has 118 and is additionally supported by the 2 MLAs of the Bahujan Samaj Party and one from the Samajwadi Party. The BJP has 109 MLAs and needs 7 more to cross the half-way mark. Given these numbers, it is being rumoured, the Congress government could fall if 10 Congress legislators absented themselves during the Speaker’s election or in a vote of confidence. 

Alternatively, the government may fall if a Congress leader were to walk out of the party with MLAs loyal to him and joins the BJP on the condition that he be made Chief Minister. The MLAs would of course have to resign their seats and contest by-elections. The BJP could then argue that it was only the collateral beneficiary of Congress incompetence.

In Rajasthan, engineering the collapse of the Congress government may be more difficult as Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot is an experienced political negotiator and has a deep understanding of the state’s caste equations. As the dominant castes likes Jats, Gujjars or Meenas compete for power among themselves, they are balanced by chief ministers who come from smaller caste groups. It is not a mere accident that third time chief minister of the state, Gehlot is from the Maali (or, gardener) caste.

Besides Gehlot’s political acumen in keeping his flock together, the numbers seem stacked against the BJP. With only 73 seats compared to 99 of the Congress in a House with a current effective strength of 199 (awaiting election in one constituency), the BJP needs either to win over 27 MLAs or to reduce the strength of the House. Both seem difficult.  

The third state where the Congress is precariously perched is Karnataka. Speculation about the Karnataka government being brought down has been rife from the day the Congress-JD(S) combine stymied the BJP’s attempts to form a government. 

In a House of 224, the Congress has 80 MLAs and the JD(S) 37 – making a total of 117, four more than the half-way mark of 113. In addition, they also have the support of an independent MLA and one legislator each from the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party. That takes the strength of the ruling alliance to 120, while the BJP has only 104 legislators. The BJP had failed to get the 9 MLAs it needed for a majority and that had paved the way for the Congress-JD(S) alliance. 

Since then however, some disgruntled voices are being heard from those Congress legislators who think that they have not got their due. Just before Christmas, Gokak MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi was dropped from the Cabinet. There are reports that he has met with BJP leaders claiming that he could bring down the alliance government in the state with the support of 12 to 14 MLAs. The BJP apparently was aghast at his demand of 10 ministerial berths for his supporters and did not believe him. Another Congress MLA who is straining at the leash, because he has not been made a minister, is B Nagendra Reddy from Bellary. 

The strategy proposed by Jarkiholi was similar to the one followed by the BJP in the aftermath of the fractured verdict of 2008. Despite falling 3 short of the majority, BS Yeddyurappa was able to form the government by the success of ‘Operation Lotus’ -- he was able to persuade 20 MLAs from the Congress and the JD(S) to resign. By reducing the size of the House the BJP was able to get a majority and the MLAs who had resigned contested by-elections. It seems unlikely that sitting MLAs in Karnataka can be persuaded to resign now when the political climate is uncertain and there is no guarantee of re-election either as a BJP candidate or as an independent. 

The BJP’s best bet would be if the Congress-JD(S) alliance breaks over seat-sharing for the Lok Sabha elections. Although in the current Lok Sabha the JD(S) has only two MPs – HD Devegowda from Hassan and M Shivanna from Chamrajnagar – the party wants to contest 12 of the 28 parliamentary seats in the state. The Congress is apparently willing to give the JD(S) 10 seats. It is unlikely, therefore, that the Congress would break the partnership over 2 extra seats being demanded by its ally.

However, assuming that the Karnataka government falls with BJP’s encouragement the Congress-JD(S) alliance could still remain firm for the Lok Sabha elections and the BJP would gain little. And most importantly, if it is unable to form a new government, the BJP would have to decide whether it would want fresh assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha polls in Karnataka.

The BJP has to decide the cost-benefit of bringing down one or more of these governments. The BJP would get an obvious advantage in these states if were to go to the general elections with its own governments. In addition, the narrative of Congress incompetence in managing coalitions would provide heavy ammunition against a Congress-led Opposition coalition that it fears. 

However, public anger against such blatant hunger for power could trigger a wave of public anger against the BJP. Added to anti-incumbency sentiment against the Central government, such skulduggery could come at a heavy price.

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis