Deceptive bounty

The agriculture production figures for 2003-04, indicating a record foodgrain harvest, may add to the feel-good factor but do not really point to much progress on the farm front.

In fact, closer scrutiny of the numbers shows that they hide more than what they reveal. It is of course true that the farm sector has displayed a sharp recovery from last year's drought-driven debacle, as reflected in massive year-on-year output growth "" ranging from 22 per cent in foodgrains to 42 per cent in cotton, and a whopping 66 per cent in oilseeds.

This growth is additionally significant because it has not been accompanied by the usual price crash, and hence may further boost agricultural and gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the current year.

The strong performance of the rabi season that is to follow will boost GDP numbers in even the next fiscal year.

But that is where the feel-good aspect ends. For, compared to the years before the 2002 drought, the current year's crop performance is not a 'shining' one.

In the case of foodgrains, which is the conventional yardstick for measuring agricultural progress, this year's projection of 212.2 million tonnes is no different from 2001-02's 212.02 million tonnes.

The same is the case in oilseeds, the only other group of crops where the output this year is predicted to set a new mark. The current year's harvest is 24.9 million tonnes, against the previous best of 24.7 million tonnes.

On the other hand, in pulses, fibre crops like cotton, jute and mesta, and sugarcane, the levels achieved in previous years have been missed by a wide margin, despite the benevolent monsoon.

Under the circumstances, both policy planners and farm scientists need to ponder over what has gone wrong with Indian agriculture.

That the green revolution is petering out is well known and well documented, in terms of near stagnation or extremely slow growth in the productivity of most crops since the 1990s.

But what merits notice is that the phase of stagnation and low agricultural growth has persisted for so long, without corrective action.

If GDP is to grow by around 8 per cent annually, as the government fondly hopes, the agricultural sector must show a compound growth rate of at least 4 per cent (the Planning Commission's estimate).

But the reality is constant deceleration in agricultural growth rates, dipping now to well below 1.5 per cent per annum.

The most significant among the obvious reasons for this state of affairs is deceleration of investment in agriculture, slowing down of irrigation expansion, and inadequate structural and institutional reforms in the farm sector.

Besides, input delivery and produce marketing systems continue to be outmoded. The disabilities of the technology transfer machinery impede the gainful exploitation of new technology being generated in the research centres.

Though some well-conceived measures have of late been initiated by the Centre to address some of these issues, these are neither adequate nor being effectively implemented by the states.

Unless the states realise the need to spruce up the farm sector, the second green revolution will remain elusive.