In just over a week, the French Open at Roland Garros will begin in the shadow of an unfamiliar position on the men's side - Rafael Nadal as an underdog to defend his title. In large measure this is because of what has undoubtedly been a year of utter dominance thus far for Novak Djokovic. Few have looked as if they could mount any sort of challenge against what is arguably the best-rounded all-court game that the sport has seen over the last decade. And, until the start of the Italian Open at Rome this week, Djokovic was, by and large, considered, almost sacrilegiously, the runaway favourite to win the French Open this year, and dethrone Nadal, the Emperor of Clay. Nadal, of course, has been invincible on clay for nearly 12 years, especially at Roland Garros, having lost just once and winning the title nine times. Even in otherwise mediocre years, Nadal has usually bounced back during the clay court season, building up his arsenal, and then somehow dominating in Paris.
This year however, it's been a different Nadal and a different Djokovic. Nadal has already lost four times on clay, while Djokovic is unbeaten. Nadal has looked fallible, uncertain, uncoordinated and more than human this entire year; while Djokovic has rarely been troubled, scything through his opposition with surgical precision. Just in the past week, Nadal has faced the ignominy of falling to the seventh in the world and losing a devastatingly one-sided final in Madrid to Andy Murray, a result that sent shock waves throughout world tennis. It even made Murray appear as an unlikely contender for the French Open title.
At Rome, however, the tide has turned, if only slightly. Nadal has bruised through the first few rounds, demolishing worthy opposition, while Djokovic has struggled, losing a set in both his early matches. It's happening quite late for Nadal, but the swagger is coming back, if slowly, and his peers have already sounded an omniscient prediction. Both Murray and Roger Federer feel that once it's showtime, Nadal will at the very least be the co-favourite with Djokovic to win his 15th Grand Slam.
That Nadal isn't the clear favourite at the French Open is a sea change by itself. In many ways, if he is dethroned this year, it could spell the beginning of the end of his career. Unlike most of his peers, Nadal has been plagued by debilitating injuries, each of which have threatened to end his career, including last year right after his early loss at Wimbledon. Few have achieved as much as Nadal, but few have also suffered as much as he has. And if he is unable to perform at his peak and win majors, it's unlikely that he will put in the kind of effort and pain into competing the next time he hurts himself or is unable to return to major winning levels.
His lower seed at the French Open could serve as a blessing or a curse for his rivals, some likely to face him as early as the quarter-finals. Given a choice, few would opt to play Nadal at all at the French Open, let alone prior to the business end. This time, however, it isn't just about Nadal. Every other year, it's been his to lose. And while the French Open this year is Djokovic's to lose, it is also Nadal's to win. Yes, Murray has had a great build up to Paris and his pulling out of Rome to rest and recover is a positive move. And yes, the great Federer always is a threat to beat anyone on any surface, except Nadal in the finals of the French Open. There are others, too, who will be dangerous - Kei Nishikori, Tomáš Berdych, Gael Monfils and now, Nick Kyrgios. Be that as it may, the privilege of emerging champion will likely vest with either Nadal or Djokovic, given the former's dominance here and the latter's formidable build-up to this.
This could be a transcendent tournament for the passing of the torch to a younger, fitter and healthier heir apparent. Or Nadal will keep it all together and continue on his quest to overtake Federer and don the mantle of the greatest of all time. At the very least, if not wide open, then for the first time in a decade this year's French Open looks to be extremely competitive and possibly momentous.
The author leads the sports law practice at J Sagar Associates. These views are his own