Don't expect much

BS OPINION

If the pre-conference parleys are any indication, it is clear that the consensus on various issues arrived at in Doha is disintegrating.

Leaving aside the issue of missed deadlines for preparatory agreements, room for pessimism is provided by several developments in the European Union and the US.

For instance, the EU's recent accord on a new common agriculture policy provides cold comfort for the developing countries as it has not proposed any reduction in farm subsidies, merely capped them at the present high levels.

But paradoxically, this move has given the EU an opportunity to intensify its campaign for the inclusion of what are called the Singapore issues (investments, competition policy, transparency in government procurement and trade facilitation) in the Cancun agenda.

The increased clout that the EU is likely to have following its impending expansion (new member countries are even now expected to lend their voice to the EU at the WTO) is bound to enhance its negotiation power.

The US, on the other hand, is finding it difficult to make any fresh commitments on agricultural subsidies since its new farm bill binds the administration to increase agricultural support.

Under the circumstances, arriving at any consensus on key issues concerning the agreement on agriculture, seems unlikely.

Moreover, considering the firm American stance on trade-related intellectual property (TRIPs) and public health issues, any forward movement on this front is doubtful, though the EU might relent on the question of waiving patent rights on mass consumption medicines if these are used in the developing countries in epidemics.

This apart, not much progress has been made on the other contentious, yet crucial, issue of services. Where India is concerned, matters have been complicated by the Swadeshi Jagran Manch's typically short-sighted demand that the country should walk out of the WTO if its concerns are not satisfactorily addressed.

However, there is a silver lining to this otherwise dismal scenario. This is the intensified lobbying by some developing countries, including India, in support of their stand on various issues, and the backing they are getting from some powerful global voluntary organisations, like Oxfam.

This lobbying seldom happened in the past, and seems to be delivering some limited results today. For instance, some ground has been won on special and differential treatment for the developing countries to ensure food and livelihood security for the poor.

The other new development is that China, never a great believer in multilateral solutions to problems, may fall in line with India and other like-minded countries on some crucial issues, and this too would be a first.

In the final analysis, India's strategy seems to be no different from what it attempted in previous trade negotiations: align with other relatively weak trading nations in the hope that there will be strength in numbers.

Such coalitions did not last in the past when matters came to a crunch, especially at the fag end of the Uruguay Round. So it would be wise to have minimalist expectations on what India's trade negotiators can extract at Cancun.