Of all the major global weather systems, the Indian monsoon has a coveted record of seldom failing completely. Even during the worst drought years, some areas of the country have got copious showers. But, at the same time, the reverse is equally true. Even during the best monsoon seasons, some tracks fall short of the normal level of rainfall. This is what has happened in the just concluded four-month monsoon season (June to September) and, as such, it should be deemed good news for agriculture as well as the economy in general.
Some concerns remain. Though the total rainfall in the whole country has been normal, being barely 2 per cent short of the long-period average, four of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions have remained rain-deficient. These include the largely rain-fed farm belt in Vidharbha and western Madhya Pradesh, and the usually heavy rainfall areas of Kerala and the north-east. This may not be agriculturally significant on a national scale, though it will of course matter for the affected regions; greater disquiet is caused by the prolonged break in monsoon rainfall during the agriculturally crucial month of July, which affected crop plantings in several pockets. Some cropland could not be seeded in areas like western MP, the Marathwada region in Maharashtra and parts of the interior peninsular tracks in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Modifications in crop plans also had to be carried out in some regions.
On the other hand, despite unprecedented flooding in Bihar in the wake of the Kosi changing its course following a breach in its embankments, and the usual inundation caused by the mighty Brahmaputra, the overall flood damage to crops has not been substantial. The kharif production prospects, therefore, have not been dented by much on this account. The outlook remains positive also because of the marked pick-up in rainfall in August and September, and the late start to the withdrawal phase (making this year’s the second most delayed withdrawal in the past half a century). This bodes well for the ensuing rabi season. One can, therefore, be optimistic about the output of rabi crops like wheat, a major pulse like gram and an important oilseed like mustard. Equally significantly, the overall water stock in the major reservoirs, though marginally lower than last year, is sufficient to irrigate the rabi crop and keep hydel power plants going. All this should logically have a sobering influence on inflation, lessening the worries of the government ahead of the elections in some key states and the subsequent general elections.
Nevertheless, what cannot also be overlooked is the fact that whatever adverse fall-out there has been because of the monsoon’s aberrations, could have been contained to a great extent if the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had been able to give sufficient forewarning. The met office did come good on its prediction of normal rainfall, but it has once again fallen short on foretelling the distribution of rainfall over time and space. A good deal of fresh investment has gone into expanding the meteorological data gathering network as well as the acquisition of sophisticated equipment for weather gazing after the 2004 drought, which the met office had failed to foresee. Still, the met office’s competence to come out with reliable, region-specific rainfall predictions does not seem to have improved. Unless that happens, the relevance of the met office’s monsoon forecasts for agriculture and the economy will remain tenuous.