Empty promises

On the other hand, the BJP, which heads the coalition government, was more critical of the Congress Party's policies of opening up the economy, privatisation and all that it has been implementing at a faster pace than the Congress.

However, this particular criticism of the Congress and the promise of full employment at this juncture, when elections to Parliament are likely to be advanced, have different motives than the routine ones. Politicians know that unemployment has become a key concern for the people "" more worrisome than corruption and inflation.

The problem is not only serious but also multi-dimensional. Neither the present government nor those that preceded it could show any tangible results, except the pep talk on banishing it within a targeted time frame. The fresh promises can be believed only if the correct situation is explained and the means and methods to achieve the goal are spelt out in clear terms.

Jobless growth: One explanation offered is that the goal will be achieved through rapid growth of the economy, based on the premise that the higher the economic growth, the higher would be employment generation. But the experience so far is not convincing. The high-growth regime did not bring commensurate jobs with it.

According to the National Sample Survey Organisation's data, the economy grew at a higher rate of 6.7 per cent during 1993 to 2000, than the growth of 5.2 per cent in the preceding 10 years. But this did not generate additional jobs.

In fact, the growth rate in employment fell from 2.7 per cent to 1.07 per cent, belying the theory of higher growth pushing the employment growth.

It was observed during the high-growth period that the overall elasticity of employment, meaning the additional employment generated by the additional output, has fallen from 0.52 during 1983 to 1994 to 0.16 during 1993 to 2000.

More importantly, the employment growth in agriculture, the most important sector of the economy, has been minimal. Its employment elasticity has fallen from 0.87 in 1983 to 0.01 in 2000.

All this indicates that the strategy adopted for fast growth was not concerned with employment generation. The technology adopted was not labour-absorbing. In fact, agriculture, which accounts for the bulk of employment, does not need too many people to yield as much production.

It is on account of the absence of employment opportunities elsewhere that people feign to be employed in that sector; the situation is also known as a "disguised unemployment".

Wrong figures: The statistics of employment and unemployment do not reflect the actual situation. All those who are shown to be employed get neither full-time jobs nor the remuneration to lead a reasonably decent life. More than 90 per cent of the employment is in the unorganised sector where there is no social security.

As high as 60 per cent of the workforce can be classified as self-employed and is very poor. One-third of those who appear to be employed get jobs of a casual nature and face hardships during the unemployment spells. The poor quality of life of the workforce can also be gauged from the fact that as much as 70 per cent "" both in the organised and unorganised sector "" is illiterate.

Only a minuscule 7 per cent of the workforce is employed in the organised sector, the bulk of which is provided by the government sector.

As many as 1.93 crore of a total of 2.79 crore jobs in the organised sector in 2000 were provided by the government sector. This means that the sector accounts for close to 70 per cent of the organised sector employment.

The estimates of unemployment on the existing level, whatever be the quality of employment, also vary. A little less than 2 crore people are expected to be jobless currently "" not a small figure by any means.

Incongruous goals: The employment in both the organised and unorganised sectors is on a decline, quite contrary to the growth in population and workforce. Blind to the ever-deteriorating quality of employment in the unorganised sector, the government and political parties are assuring creation of employment in such a quantum that the target of full employment will be achieved in a given number of years.

For instance, the target figure of creating 10 million jobs a year so that unemployment is eradicated over a 10-year-period is a figure that has been arrived at on the basis of existing unemployment, population growth and the resultant addition to the workforce during the period. In fact, this has been the target figure for all the political parties and government agencies.

The Planning Commission expects the creation of 50 million jobs over the five-year-period of the Tenth Plan; 9.47 million jobs in agriculture alone, on the assumption of 8 per cent growth in GDP and 0.50 in the employment elasticity.

But increased elasticity means lower output per worker and a shift from capital- to labour-intensive technology, all of which are not the acceptable means to do so. Thus, the goals and the means are not compatible.

The realisation of the goal with all sincerity and honesty involves an overall change in the growth strategy that is totally opposed to the one adopted by the previous Congress government and the present NDA. Neither accepts that its policies are incorrect. No introspection can be seen on any front, only mutual accusations.

The achievement of full employment and improving the quality of employment, in other words, the quality of life, involve many bold decisions. There needs to be a viable policy for the protection of domestic economy "" all its sub-sectors that include agriculture, industry and services "" from foreign competition.

It requires a vision to make the people partners and beneficiaries of growth and development, which presupposes the utilisation of enormous manpower resources together with the natural resources of the country. In other words, it calls for an overall reorientation of growth and development strategy.

It is not sufficient to make tall promises about full employment by identifying the problem without showing the means to overcome it. People will believe the promises only when the strategy and policy to achieve full employment is announced in categorical terms.

Big promises by the opposition are as bad as the current government's claims about success in generating employment from some aggregate figures of output, employment and so on. The real proof of the pudding will be in its eating.