Once bitten, twice shy. After the Sharm el Sheikh fiasco, the government has gone into a blue funk on dealing with Pakistan. While Pakistan’s unhelpful response to investigations into the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks continues to make it difficult for India, it is also clear that any prime ministerial initiative now requires more political energy than may be available. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was right to pose the rhetorical question, “Who does one deal with in Pakistan?” Between President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and Army chief Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, there are three parallel centres of power in Pakistan. If one is to believe that Prime Minister Gilani has the backing of General Kayani, then there are at least two centres of power within the government and another outside, in the person of the Opposition leader Mian Mohammad Nawaz Sharif. Until India knows who it can deal with in Pakistan, the focused dialogue that Dr Singh had carried on with President Pervez Musharraf will not resume. When a dialogue is resumed, it will have to begin from where Dr Singh and General Musharraf had left it. All sides to the dialogue are now fully aware of the basic elements of the Singh-Musharraf dialogue and any final settlement of the Kashmir problem will have to be crafted around the ideas of regional autonomy and “soft borders”.
However, till the official dialogue resumes, this bilateral relationship cannot be frozen in time. Pakistan is far too important a neighbour for India’s relationship to be defined purely by government-to-government interaction. What is needed is active civil society and business interaction that may well help create the atmosphere for better state-to-state relations. India must recognise that Pakistan is today a more divided society than ever before and there are millions of Pakistanis who wish to live a life of peace in a free and open society. There is today an upwardly mobile Pakistani middle class that is equally, if not more, worried about the Talibanisation of their country. Most people wish to live a life of peace and prosperity, seeking the good things of life. Most educated Pakistanis, like their Indian counterparts, are not enamoured by religious extremism and equally fear jihadi terrorism. For this class, India should become a land of opportunity, entertainment and leisure, not an alien and hostile territory. Unless India opens its doors to a new generation of moderate and modern Pakistanis, it would find its ties with the neighbour constrained by government-to-government relations. This cannot serve India’s long-term interests. A precondition to progress on this track is for Indians, especially the media and the opinion-makers, to have a more nuanced and sophisticated view of Pakistan and Pakistanis. India must find innovative ways of engaging Pakistan civil society even if the government prefers to tread a tried and tested path for now. An easier student and business visa policy would be helpful in making a new beginning. Active exchange of scholars, scientists, artists and media professionals would be equally constructive. Unilateral Indian initiatives in the fields of education, entertainment, commerce and upmarket tourism would make Pakistan’s middle and business classes more enthusiastic about normal relations with India.