The announcement by the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) that the Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV) will launch India’s most sophisticated communications satellite, GSAT-14, in 2012 with an indigenous cryogenic engine has been greeted with a mixture of caution and hope. Despite considerable progress in developing indigenous capabilities in the design and launching of satellites, the final frontier – a reliable capacity to place payloads of at least four tonnes in orbit – continues to elude Isro. The celebrated launch of the 3.1-tonne GSAT-8 late last month from Arianne’s space facility in French Guiana could barely conceal Isro’s own lack of confidence to propel payloads of this magnitude through its indigenous launch vehicle, the GSLV. Isro’s long-stated ambition of becoming a significant player in the commercial satellite launch space will go nowhere unless it demonstrates that it can reliably place payloads exceeding four tonnes in orbit. As things stand, that seems some way off!
Isro’s workhorse, the Polar Launch Satellite Vehicle (PSLV) which had its first successful launch in 1994, has emerged as one of the world’s most cost-effective launch vehicles. It has enabled Isro to step into the launch space for lower payloads, vacated by commercial launch organisations in the West and China. On the other hand, the GSLV launched successfully for the first time in 2003 was expected to firmly place India’s space programme in the big league. It marked the culmination of a decade of planning which included an advanced level of systems integration and the development of indigenous cryogenic engines to offset a US embargo on exports of “dual technology”. The record since the first launch has been decidedly mixed and two successive failures in 2010 have done little to bolster confidence in its reliability as a launch vehicle. A successful track record of reliable GSLV launches will enable Isro to aggressively enter the higher payload market, where the real money is. A forecast by the Antrix Corporation in 2005 that Isro would self-finance itself by 2012 seems unlikely. In the meanwhile, Antrix has got into trouble with its Devas deal.
While the launch of smaller satellites and the sale of data generated by remote-sensing satellites to global consumers enable Isro to meet a significant proportion of its operating expenses, higher revenues from bigger launches would enable the organisation to self-finance its ambitious expansion plans. The benefits of forward and backward linkages of a successful space launch programme to the domestic economy are immeasurable. At present, Isro collaborates with over 2,000 vendors ranging from engineering giants, such as Godrej Industries and Larsen & Toubro, to small and medium enterprises specialising in niche technologies. A successful launch programme consisting of a combination of PSLV and GSLV launches would significantly boost domestic manufacturing capability by enabling domestic manufacturers to scale up. Isro needs to get its act together, create a sustainable business model and be more transparent in its deals so that it can soar to new heights.