First Rome then Turin

Renzi's rout weakens Italian reform momentum

In ancient Rome servants of the goddess Cybele were castrated in festivals called the day of blood. Having just lost two of the country's most important cities to female candidates of the radical 5-Star movement, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is in similar levels of political pain. The arrival of young, diverse candidates in Italian politics is welcome, but the news is unambiguously bad for Renzi's reform agenda.

The victory of 5-Star candidate Virginia Raggi in the corruption-ridden Rome was no surprise. Turin is the bigger blow: it is part of Italy's industrial heartland and a stronghold of Renzi's Democratic Party, yet his respected candidate was beaten by relative unknown Chiara Appendino.

The results betray the failure of Matteo Renzi to quell voter discontent and reshape Italian politics since seizing power in 2014. He took office after 2013 elections saw a three-way stalemate between the left, Silvio Berlusconi's right-wing Forza Italia and the surging 5-Star. Two years on, Italy's economy is weak and the 5-star is still powerful. Worse, it can draw voters from other parties, namely the right, to win second-round ballots, like this one. That raises the risk that the 5-Star might win at a national level, as one of Renzi's reforms has been to change the national vote to a double ballot system.

The most immediate risk is the local vote presages a defeat in an October constitutional referendum, which Renzi needs to make Italy governable. If he loses, he will resign, plunging Italy into chaos. The 5-Star party opposes the referendum, as do parts of the right wing, particularly the Northern League. A weaker showing in the local vote may galvanize Renzi's opponents in his own party.

Even if Renzi wins the referendum, the local vote has longer-term repercussions. Renzi will be less willing to call early elections, and may be increasingly dependent on securing support from the right, and his own socialist left-wing. They may force him to reform the electoral law, which would weaken Italian politics by favouring small parties. He may be less keen to force radical change, and more prone to curry favour with fiscal binges. That could increase tensions with Germany. What Italy needs most of all is growth - and so far not even Renzi has managed that.