 "Four winners and five losers in the Bihar elections")
The protracted Bihar election is now over. The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) of JDU, RJD and the INC has emerged as the victor while the BJP+ alliance has received a shellacking. A cursory glance at the vote shares of various alliance partners can lead one to conclude that this was a victory of superior arithmetic. This would not only be shallow but misleading as well. While the arithmetic was simple to figure out, it was the chemistry of the two alliances that was under a close watch. It seemed to have morphed into a lamp-post election with the MGB winning 73 per cent of the seats in the 243 seat assembly. So, who were the winners of this election and who were the losers?
The winners
Bihar presented a stark choice to some leaders and their parties. It offered them hope of survival through alliance or a political dead-end. In this battle of survival we had four winners, three politicians - Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav, Rahul Gandhi and a strategist - Prashant Kishor.
Nitish Kumar would clearly be the biggest winner of this Bihar election. The two time CM’s quest for redemption looked tough when he unseated Jitan Ram Manjhi as the CM. Nitish’s story is now part of political mythology. In the year 2013, Nitish staked his political career by breaking a successful alliance with the BJP as he didn’t agree with the choice of Narendra Modi as the Prime Ministerial candidate of the NDA which Nitish had been a part of. While Modi won the election in 2014, it was a huge setback for Nitish. He once again staked whatever was left and relinquished Chief Minister’s chair and went back to the people and his workers. A few months later he took the charge back when Manjhi messed up governance in Bihar. Nitish’s principled stand coupled with a wise alliance pulled him out of the abyss of May 2014 and has put him in contention to be Prime Ministerial candidate in the year 2019.
Lalu Prasad Yadav, the leader of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, cannot contest elections as he has been convicted on charges of corruption in the fodder scam. The former railway minister also suffered a major loss in the 2014 elections. His style of politics was dated and his appeal gone and his political career seemed over with his hold on the Muslim & Yadav votes appearing fragile. Circumstances (like the political careers of his sons) and an instinct for survival pushed him into an alliance with Nitish’s JDU. Political gossip suggests it was Lalu who made the phone call to Nitish when the election results were declared in 2014. The shock of defeat prompted a burial of hatchet and a tentative alliance was formed. In this election, RJD has emerged as the single largest party in Bihar with 80 seats. Lalu has recovered his electoral mojo. He was steadfast in support for Nitish and even announced in advance that Nitish would be the Chief Minister no matter what numbers the elections threw out. Lalu is a victor because he has survived the most shattering of losses in 2014 and his political heirs, his sons are now MLAs in the Bihar assembly.
Rahul Gandhi cannot catch a break. That was the story. Till now. For some time political grapevine had suggested that it was Rahul Gandhi whose actions forced Lalu to accept Nitish as unquestioned leader of the Grand Alliance. According to these stories, Rahul expressed a clear preference for Nitish over Lalu and worried about a split in the Muslim votes, with the stark lesson of 2014 still strong, Lalu immediately accepted Nitish as the CM candidate, no questions asked. That story may or may not be true but it is true that the Congress’ success in these polls shocked everyone. From being mocked for having the gall to contest 41 seats in these elections to being mocked (in the early periods of counting) for being a minor blip on the result radar to the fashionable Rahul Gandhi mockery on social media, the Congress shocked one and all by netting 27 of those 41 seats. The victory was shocking because it was fighting in the NDA’s strongholds like Bhagalpur or Buxar (where the Prime Minister held his biggest rally). While his performance inside the parliament caught everyone’s attention in the last two sessions, this result would make them take him a little more seriously now. The comprehensive rejection of the BJP would also have an effect on old Congressmen who eyed the BJP as an alternative. Things would now be a little easier for him to manage within his party. Rahul Gandhi finally caught a break and how!
Prashant Kishor was credited with having played a major role in Narendra Modi’s success in the 2014 elections. Then he had a falling out with the BJP. He then joined Nitish Kumar and built the same apparatus for him. Having been denied his place in the sun by Modi (or a very powerful Union minister as sources say), Kishor finally had his revenge as Nitish led his alliance to a sweep in Bihar, demolishing the Modi aura in the process. Kishor’s success is important as he has introduced to India the concept of professional electoral campaign management. Comparisons with David Axelrod may be useless but Kishor’s imprint on this election and the way campaigns are going to be run cannot be denied. He is now hot property when it comes to fighting campaigns. There is talk of a top BJP leader having got in touch with him in the middle of the campaign to try and bury the hatchet. Prashant Kishor is a winner not only because of the Bihar election result but for having introduced a sense of modernity to India’s political campaigns. He is a winner as he seems to have created a modular campaign apparatus that is transferable and scalable. This is going to have far reaching implications for the Indian democracy.
The losers
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Bihar represented a loss for some important political personalities who would need to reassess their methods or their choices in the future.
Narendra Modi ended up being the biggest loser of the Bihar election. The BJP tried to replicate its campaigns in Haryana and Maharashtra by making Modi the centrepiece but it forgot that Modi has been a PM for 18 months and his charm has now faded. 2014 would always be remembered as the election when Narendra Modi combined hope and change to offer a heady mixture to the Indian electorate. The high expectations set in that campaign have been belied by the performance of the Modi govt since it took charge. In Bihar, BJP suffered a loss of 5.5 percentage points in vote share. While it could be a result of no local face being presented as a choice for the voters, it is also possible that this is due to the evaporation of the Modi-factor vote. The Prime Minister did 27 rallies in these elections and the BJP’s campaign made it into a referendum on his popularity but it backfired and the Modi aura now lies dented. He threw all caution to the winds and ran a campaign that a Prime Minister should not be too proud of. There was even an attempt to pit the SCs, and OBCs against the minorities in a speech by the PM. The 2014 result is now long gone and Modi is now a diminished player in Indian politics.
Amit Shah has been hailed as a master strategist by all but this election would raise doubts about that. So far his style of working has been a centralised campaign where even differing views either fall in line or fall by the wayside. Bihar showed the limits of his ability. As the election progressed, the BJP strategy almost turned comical as confusion reigned supreme. While the Vikas argument was defeated by Nitish with his record as CM, the rest of the time was spent moving from caste to cow to communalism and finally to Pakistan. Crackers would be burst in Pakistan if BJP lost is what Amit Shah told a rally. Crackers were burst by BJP workers on 8 November. It was done in India but the BJP was not the winner.
Mulayam Singh Yadav ended a short-lived alliance with the larger Janata Parivar in Bihar abruptly. While reasons were proffered by Netaji, experts treated them with the skepticism they deserved. It was suggested that Mulayam had done it as he foresaw a BJP victory in Bihar. SP’s behaviour in the parliament and outside since the May 2014 result has been peculiar. On more than one issue, it has been found aiding the BJP government in some way or the other. The Bihar result may however prove that the attempt to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds might have put paid to any scope of an alliance for SP in UP in 2017. Netaji picked a side in Bihar and his side lost.
Bihar also represented Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM’s entry in Hindi heartland politics. From the outset, many political watchers (including this writer) regarded this entry with cynicism. The AIMIM’s entry in Bihar was seen as an attempt to help the BJP. Owaisi’s party is a party that unabashedly stands for Muslim interests. It was expected to damage the MGB’s chances in Seemanchal by chipping away small percentages of the Muslim votes and by ensuring Hindu vote consolidation under the BJP which is seen to represent Hindu interests. While Owaisi did attract media attention and crowds, it did not convert into votes. Reports emerged that Muslim elders in Seemanchal communicated to him that they were not going to let the Muslim vote split in order to ensure the BJP’s loss. His party ended up with 0.2% of the votes. The foray in the Hindi heartland proved to be a disaster.
Jitan Ram Manjhi tried to put up a resistance when Nitish reasserted his authority in the JDU and sought the CM-ship back. He formed the HAM and contested this election where he was projected as an important leader of the Mahadalits. At the end of this election, Manjhi is the lone man standing from his party but he is on the wrong side of the political divide now. This probably is the end of the road for the 71 year old politician. Twitter: @Bhayankur