| Buyers generally tend to postpone purchases in order to own a 2004 make, rather than buy in December and own a 2003 model. This is an important factor for many buyers since it affects the resale price of the vehicle. |
| Seen in that light, Bajaj Auto's meagre 3.8 per cent rise in motorcycle sales last month was more or less on expected lines. From April to December, Bajaj has done better than peers with a 18.42 per cent rise in motorcycle sales. |
| Importantly, sales of three-wheelers increased 38 per cent and exports jumped 86.5 per cent. Exports accounted for 10 per cent of sales in the September quarter, and is going to have an increasing influence on Bajaj's overall performance "" thanks to the alliance with Kawasaki for the 'Wind 125', sales to ASEAN countries are expected to drive exports. |
| TVS Motors' motorcycle sales dipped 12 per cent, which was better than the 30 per cent drop in sales in November. TVS's sales have been falling lately because of a drop in the offtake of 'Maxx 100', which is a 2-stroke product. |
| The company has now launched a 4-stroke alternative in 'Centra', but it remains to be seen whether the product catches the market's fancy. Most surprisingly, the TVS stock has been among the best performing 2-wheeler stocks in the past year despite its underperformance on the sales front. |
| This probably points to an expectation that the Centra will be a successful launch. |
| Hero Honda managed a 28 per cent rise in motorcycle sales, which was a rather pleasant surprise. Although the break-up is not available, analysts feel the growth would have been driven by a jump in sales of its entry-level models. |
| Based on the company's performance in the past few months, it looks like it will be the main beneficiary of the good monsoons last year and the expected pick up in rural demand. |
| Ditto with Maruti, whose sales went up 23 per cent last month, thanks to a higher sales in the 'B' and 'C' segments. |
| In summary, although December caused a hiccup to a few players, the overall performance suggests that the growth story will continue well into 2004. |
| Foreign trade on a roll |
| Export growth is back at double digit levels after the dismal 5 per cent growth in October, with the November showing year-on-year growth of 13.74 per cent. |
| It's been widely hailed as cause for celebration, as well as evidence that the strengthening of the rupee isn't hurting our exports. But the rupee actually depreciated in November, the interbank rate falling from 45.395 to the dollar on November 1 to 46.01 to the dollar on November 30. |
| What's more, the high rate of growth in November 2003 was a consequence of the dip in exports in November 2002, and the base effect contributed to the high rate of growth. |
| November exports were in fact lower than in the preceding four months ""- exports during July, August, September, October and November 2003 were $4688 million, $4560 million ,$4982 million,$4884 million and $4494 million respectively. |
| Rather than focus on month-to-month variations, therefore, it's better to look at April-November figures, which show a growth rate of 8.81 per cent. |
| Achieving the targeted 12 per cent growth in the four remaining months would mean an average growth rate of over 18 per cent each month for the rest of the fiscal year. That would be difficult. |
| Import growth too rose because of the base effect in November, but non-oil import growth of 25.89 per cent during April to November 2003 is confirmation of the strength of the economic recovery. |
| As the table shows, non-oil imports have continued to rise steadily throughout the year, except from a sudden burst in October, (possibly on account of gold imports in the festival season), pointing to the improvement in the economy. |
| With contributions by Mobis Philipose |
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