The first batch of Singapore's baby boomers - those born between 1947 and 1965 - turned 65 last year and 900,000 more are due to make the transition in the next 18 years. This means that, under the combined pressure of a low fertility rate (held below the replacement level of 2.1 for more than 30 years) and the natural process of ageing, Singapore's old-age population, 11.1 per cent now, will keep increasing unless measures are taken to hold it in check. This also means the proportion of working citizens - those between 20 and 64 years, who keep Singapore running - will be shrinking, too.
So, the government must act, and it has. It has prepared, and Parliament has passed, a White Paper on what it proposes to do to keep Singapore's population - projected to grow from 5.3 million now to 6.9 million by 2030 - sufficiently balanced and dynamic. For one thing, it wants to take in 15,000 to 25,000 immigrants and about 30,000 permanent residents every year. "If we do too little to address the demographic challenge," the White Paper says, "we risk becoming a steadily greying society, losing vitality and verve, with our young people leaving for opportunities elsewhere. But if we take in too many immigrants and foreign workers, we will weaken our national identity and sense of belonging and feel crowded out of our own home."
At the same time, to inject some spark into Singapore's 0.9 per cent citizen-population growth rate per year, the government would now encourage Singaporeans to get married and have children early. Its Marriage and Parenthood Package, in existence for over a decade, will be further enhanced to enable couples to get housing faster and more easily, and help them better balance their work and family commitments.
The task of staying young while getting old isn't easy though. The fertility trick won't produce results soon enough, and immigration was an issue in the May 2011 parliamentary election and had cost the ruling People's Action Party some valuable votes. More than a third of Singapore's residents are now foreign-born, and "hard-core" Singaporeans are afraid the growing presence of foreigners is going to dive up living costs, reduce job opportunities, squeeze public services, and weaken their national identity. At a protest rally last month, at the Speaker's Corner in Hong Lim Park, the only place where Singaporeans are allowed to vent their opinion and anger in public, banners went up saying "Singapore for Singaporeans".
The government, of course, has moved to douse public anger somewhat by taking such steps as making foreigners pay a 10 per cent extra stamp duty when they buy property on the island. Wealthy foreigners can no longer acquire permanent residence simply by investing in the economy. Foreign workers earning less than $4,000 a month can't bring their spouses and children to live with them anymore.
But the fact is, it's not possible for Singapore to do without foreigners. Its "hard-core" population base isn't big enough to be on its own and can't be expanded at will; and, of about 200,000 Singaporeans who live overseas, some may be lured to come back home, but not all. Besides, undeniably, Singapore owes its origins to immigrants - from China, India, Malaysia - and about 40 per cent of all Singaporean marriages each year are between natives and foreigners.
The other aspect of the government's balancing act is a nuts-and-bolts plan to ensure that the island doesn't get too crowded - clearly, a concern that's fuelling much of the anti-foreigner sentiment - and all Singaporeans keep on enjoying a high-quality living environment. Of course, density will rise if the population reaches 6.9 million by 2030, as projected, but at 13,700 per sq km, it will still be much lower than cities like Hong Kong (22,000) or Seoul (27,000). This will be achieved by reclaiming additional land, using some of the reserve land, intensifying new developments, and recycling old industrial areas and some golf courses to jack up land productivity.
The plan is to develop an additional 700,000 housing units, 60 per cent more than at present, besides opening up new reservoirs and waterways for recreational purposes, creating 4,100 more hospital beds, and expanding transport connectivity. All this is to be achieved without compromising the government's commitment to keep 10 per cent of Singapore's land permanently green. "We will explore new technology and innovative solutions to increase our physical capacity and ensure that Singapore remains highly liveable," the government says.
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