Getting to grips with net-zero

In his Independence Day address from the ramparts of the Red Fort on August 15, Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned that the Indian Railways was striving to be a “net-zero carbon emitter” by 2030, and emphasised that India was one of the few countries well set on the path to meeting its climate goals. In mid-September, US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry came calling. He said in New Delhi that the United States would be expecting India to announce its pledge to reduce emissions to “net-zero” by 2050 at the upcoming COP 26 Summit.

Net-zero is reached when the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) added to the atmosphere is not more than the amount taken away. 

So how does India propose to achieve net-zero? First, by increasing energy efficiencies wherever possible to reduce the growth of total energy demand. 

Second, by electrifying all sectors to the maximum extent, thus reducing direct use of fossil fuels in final energy demand and combining this with a shift to green electricity generation using renewables. 
 

Third, by use of market mechanisms like carbon pricing and carbon taxes. (India is yet to embark on this trajectory.) Fourth, by internal carbon pricing (ICP). The steady rise in the number of Indian companies that have voluntarily undertaken ICP demonstrates increased sensitivity towards a low-carbon future by corporate India. Reliance, for example, has announced its intention to become a net-zero entity by 2035.

Fifth, by “carbon capture” of emissions associated with residual use of fossil fuels. Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) involves capturing emissions from a power plant or industrial unit for either re-use for another purpose or sequestering it in geologically feasible locations. Associated with this is CDR — carbon dioxide removal, or pulling carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere with options like afforestation. Whilst CCUS along with CDR cannot substitute for emissions, they have a fair contributory role that cannot be ignored.

Emissions of GHGs can be controlled through market mechanisms. There are two broad ways to do this; emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon taxes. ETS, also known as the “cap-and-trade system” empowers authorities to set a limit on the total level of carbon and GHG emissions an undertaking is allowed to release into the atmosphere. The caps have a declining gradient, where they are reduced every year. In this method, establishments with low emissions can sell their allowances they did not use to others who emitted more than their limits. The other method is carbon taxes, where a punitive tax is levied on undesired emissions. 

India has unleashed a variety of policies and measures to reach the net-zero goal. They include coal cess, renewable power obligations and renewable energy certificates. The country has demonstrated commendable progress in installing green energy generation capacity (175 GW target by 2022 and 450 GW by 2030). It is moving fast on the full electrification of the railways. Rapid expansion of the electric vehicles market is high on the agenda; and a futuristic National Hydrogen Mission has just been announced. Various energy efficiency measures have been put in place. Light emitting diode and compact fluorescent light programmes have revolutionised energy-efficient lighting across the country.

With all this, India is expected to put up a credible stand at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also referred to as COP26 (COP is the abbreviation for Conference of the Parties). It is the 26th UN Conference on the subject, to be held in Glasgow, Scotland from October 31 — November 12. It is billed as a high-profile event where participating nations are expected to commit to enhanced emission reduction goals. About 130 countries, including the United States, are reportedly considering acceptance of the target of reducing emissions to net zero by 2050. Another five have set later dates, while China, the world’s largest emitter of 25 per cent of global greenhouse gases, has set 2060 as its date for carbon neutrality. India has not yet given a commitment year.

So, what is expected to be India’s position at COP 26?

Various think-tanks and energy research institutions have come up with their own models to forecast an appropriate target year for India. They range from an overly optimistic 2035 to a longer-range 2075. A study co-authored by Montek Singh Ahluwalia (under the auspices of the Centre for Social and Economic Progress) suggests that India can achieve net-zero by 2065-70, as its greenhouse emissions will peak by 2035. 

Some experts believe that a common net-zero date for all countries is not the best way of tackling global warming. In addition, there is a body of opinion that developing countries, including India, should not commit to a net-zero target without enhanced and committed international financial support.

India’s acceptance of a target has deep underpinnings, as it is in a bi-polar position in the debate on multilateral action on climate change. It is the fourth largest carbon emitter, and at the same time, its per capita emissions remain one of the lowest among emerging economies. India has forcefully made the point that it is the developed world that has contributed to the current debilitating stock of GHGs; and that there is no question of a compromise with growth. Thus, any public commitment by India to a target date for net-zero should be seen by the world community as India’s clear, unambiguous and committed participation in battling global climate change.

We await the positions taken at COP 26. 

The writer is an infrastructure afficionado. @Infra_VinayakCh