Ram Temple-associated gigs can absorb almost 2% of India's labour force

On a busy day, it is quite possible that nearly 3 per cent of the labour force is engaged in gigs for political or political-religious events

As India moves into elections mode, the political narrative seems to be shifting systematically to the Ram temple issue. The issue was dormant till the RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat raised the ask in his Vijaya Dashmi speech on October 18 by demanding a law to facilitate building the temple. The Shiv Sena landed in Ayodhya on November 24 to raise the pitch for the temple. Vishwa Hindu Parishad had its own show. According to a report in Economic Times, the Sangh Parivar planned three rallies in Nagpur, Ayodhya and Bangalore on November 25 for the temple and, 543 rallies between November 25 and December 25.

It seems likely then that the BJP will make the temple an election issue for the coming Lok Sabha election. Jobs is unlikely to be a significant election issue. It has rarely been an election issue in India even in the past. 2019 is likely to be no different.

Manifestos may contain promises on jobs. Jobs will also find mention in several election speeches. But, the issue of unemployment is unlikely to take centre-stage in the campaigns. This seems logical. There are no agitations against unemployment. Implicitly, there isn't any latent anger regarding lack of good jobs to harvest electorally.

 

Loan waivers and reservations are better poll campaign candidates. They seek instant gratification. Loan waivers gained traction after demonetisation. Reservation of jobs in government is tricky because of Supreme Court limitations but even this has been popular and may gain traction as we see Marathas in Maharashtra sensing victory.

A promise of jobs is not considered equally attractive unless the jobs are reservations in government service or in government-run institutions such as schools and colleges. Private jobs are not attractive enough for the electorate to launch an agitation. For a young entrant into the labour force, a non-government job is often a temporary phenomenon till a government job can be wrangled.

Granting loan waivers and reservations is perilous. The temple and statues are arguably safer bets.

Temples and statues also provide jobs, in a sense. They don't solve the unemployment problem, but they do provide some direct relief to India's large stock of unemployed.

Note that unemployment as a macro-economic problem is incomprehensible and not really experienced by most in India. Unlike inflation, unemployment doesn't affect most people. Most people in India who work in the organised sector do not lose their jobs easily. Those who lose jobs are the ones who have informal jobs or who work in the unorganised sector. These were never sure of the stability of their jobs, anyway. So, for a large proportion of working-age Indians, employment, unemployment, under-employment and disguised employment are states that they seamlessly float in and out in their daily lives. Unemployment as a macro-economic challenge is absent and its absence is not even noticed.

The political class understands this very well. It therefore also understands that a promise for jobs is neither tangibly deliverable nor is it understood or appreciated by the electorate. Reducing an electoral promise of jobs to jumlas or at best, an encouragement to fry pakoras  was made with an implicit but deep understanding of the true nature of the unemployment problem in India.

Government and organised sector jobs account for less than 20 per cent of all employment. The rest of India fends for itself -- in search of informal engagements in unorganised sectors. Gigs. 

Gigs is what most Indians do. And, gigs is what a movement for the temple will provide in good measure. 543 rallies for the temple coincide with many more pure political rallies. Rallies abound. Each offers thousands of gigs. Everything from organising a rally to attending it is a gig. 

If each of the 543 rallies provided a thousand jobs for two days, we are talking of nearly a million job-days in a month just because of the temple rallies. These temple associated gigs could absorb at least two per cent of the labour force.

Then there are big and small political rallies and the rest of the electioneering that offers gigs galore. On a busy day, it is quite possible that nearly three per cent of the labour force is engaged in gigs for political or political-religious events.

Gigs are what we are used to. And, gigs is what is being offered. Decent jobs are not on the agenda in these elections.

The author is managing director and CEO, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy P Ltd