EU governments are expectedly hailing Croatia's accession to the EU as a vote of confidence in the European project. Zagreb has more concrete reasons to gloat. It will get more funds, new friends and a place at the grown-ups' table. But the real benefits of accession for the country - substantial reform and political stability - are looking less certain.
The former Yugoslav state's 12-year journey towards European Union membership has put it under prolonged scrutiny. It was an incentive for the country to reform somewhat, although a lot remains to be done. Corruption and organised crime are still endemic. Red tape, which has made business unattractive and scared foreign investors, is rampant. The hope is that Croatia will work harder on all these fronts. The risk is that it won't.
Domestic politics do not inspire hope. Growing nationalism has boosted anti-EU sentiment in the country, to the point that the leader of a small right-wing eurosceptic party will even hold one of Croatia's 12 seats at the European parliament. Some disenchantment is natural. Austerity policies of the type advocated by Brussels have dampened public enthusiasm in a country whose economy is uncompetitive and weak. Croatia is in its fifth year of recession, and its gross domestic product is 10 per cent lower than in 2008. The budget deficit and public debt will stand at 4.7 per cent and 58 per cent of GDP this year, according to EU forecasts. The unemployment rate is forecast to reach 19 per cent.
EU membership will not fix Croatia's fiscal issues. It may help boost foreign investment and push borrowing costs lower. The biggest gain for the economy would be the ^11 billion of structural funds Croatia stands to benefit from - if, that is, it can find credible ways to spend them. Welcoming Croatia will have little impact on the stagnant European economy, but enlarging to the western Balkans has at least some political appeal.
Croatia's membership cannot garner much excitement at home until voters see what they gained. Europe, on the other hand, seems to be on enlargement auto-pilot, not seeming to care much whether its newest member is up to the task. As long as Zagreb's willingness to reform remains unconvincing, there will be few reasons to rejoice.
The former Yugoslav state's 12-year journey towards European Union membership has put it under prolonged scrutiny. It was an incentive for the country to reform somewhat, although a lot remains to be done. Corruption and organised crime are still endemic. Red tape, which has made business unattractive and scared foreign investors, is rampant. The hope is that Croatia will work harder on all these fronts. The risk is that it won't.
Domestic politics do not inspire hope. Growing nationalism has boosted anti-EU sentiment in the country, to the point that the leader of a small right-wing eurosceptic party will even hold one of Croatia's 12 seats at the European parliament. Some disenchantment is natural. Austerity policies of the type advocated by Brussels have dampened public enthusiasm in a country whose economy is uncompetitive and weak. Croatia is in its fifth year of recession, and its gross domestic product is 10 per cent lower than in 2008. The budget deficit and public debt will stand at 4.7 per cent and 58 per cent of GDP this year, according to EU forecasts. The unemployment rate is forecast to reach 19 per cent.
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Croatia's membership cannot garner much excitement at home until voters see what they gained. Europe, on the other hand, seems to be on enlargement auto-pilot, not seeming to care much whether its newest member is up to the task. As long as Zagreb's willingness to reform remains unconvincing, there will be few reasons to rejoice.