In December last year, a senior dignitary in the region described the objectives of Gulf diplomacy as ‘mutual understanding, coexistence, good relations with our neighbours and the establishment of strong relations based on the principles of reciprocal advantage and the realisation of the good of all.’ These principles by themselves are unexceptionable and widely subscribed to. The devil is in the un-stated major premise, and in threat perceptions that do not converge sufficiently.
The challenge, then, lies in seeking this convergence in areas of security, politics and economics and in developing procedures that would help bring it about. Experience shows that convergence is achieved only through a painstaking process of developing a (minimum) common threat perception, in maintaining it over time and in developing the mechanism for minimising risks to common security and maximising the benefits of cooperation. Such a process requires agreement on dialogue procedures.
Record shows that the resources of the region were initially controlled by extra-regional private commercial entities that had played a pioneering role in the discovery and development of these resources. They were strongly supported by their governments. The process of establishing national control over these resources was at times torturous and painful. Eventually, however, the mindset of an earlier era gave way to the common sense approach of inter-dependence of the producer and the consumer. Access to resources thus became more relevant than physical control.
I mention this because some residual perceptions of the earlier period do at times cloud the market vision even now and need to be dispelled.
In this backdrop, I propose to explore answers to three questions: How does the prevailing situation affect India and Indian interests? What should India do to sustain and secure its interests? What could, and should, be the Indian contribution to the promotion of peace and security in the sub-region?
The quantitative parameters of this relationship can be specified:
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# We import over 63 per cent of our crude oil requirement from these eight countries of the Persian Gulf.
# These eight countries account for over 22 per cent of our total trade as of 2009-10 amounting to around $105 billion.
# UAE is our top trading partner with a total trade of $43.5 billion, ahead of China at $42.4 billion and the US at 36.5 billion.
# Saudi Arabia is our fourth largest trading partner with a trade of $21 billion, and Iran our ninth largest trading partner at $13.4 billion.
# An Indian non-immigrant workforce of around 6 million works in these countries, principally in the GCC states. Of these, 1.6 million are in Saudi Arabia and 1.2 million in the UAE. The composition of this workforce has changed over the years and many more professionals and specialised technical skills are to be found amongst them today. The remittances of this workforce, through banking channels, stands at around $30 billion per annum. They help support six million families and contribute in some measure to economic activity in some of the states of the Indian Union.
The sub-region is also within the security parameter of India and within the operational radius of the Indian Navy. The latter’s participation in the anti-piracy operations in the Arabian Sea is a case in point. If needed, it can escort shipping and interdict forces hostile to it.
The focus of Indian interest therefore is, and would remain, on the desirability of having (a) friendly governments (b) regional peace and stability (c) access to oil and gas resources of the region (d) freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf and through the Straits of Hormuz (e) continued market access for Indian trade, technology, investments and workforce and (f) security and welfare of the Indian workforce, particularly in times of distress emanating from disturbed local or regional conditions.
Excerpt from the address of Vice President M Hamid Ansari at the inauguration of the ICWA Conference titled “India and GCC Countries, Iraq and Iran: Emerging Security Perspectives”, on November 20 in New Delhi.