International politics is a ruthless business and often a perception of weakness is the worst thing that can happen to a leader. A sense of American decline is pervading the atmosphere these days and it seems it is open season on Obama. Everyone from his domestic opponents to the North Korean regime seems to be testing Obama’s nerves. Meanwhile, the superpower-in-waiting — China — is free to challenge the established global order with impunity.
Since his drubbing in the mid-term elections in early November, Obama has suffered a series of foreign policy setbacks, in his own Congress and abroad, that have put his agenda for improving America’s standing and strength overseas at risk. From failing to secure a free-trade pact in South Korea to struggling to win Senate ratification of the START with Russia, Obama is coming to terms with the limits of his power at a defining moment in his Presidency.
A host of foreign policy problems remain unresolved for which he needs a firm base of domestic support, but that seems to be rapidly dwindling. The Middle East peace process initiated two months back with great fanfare remains stalled. Obama placed his prestige behind the Middle East talks in the beginning, only to see them founder a few weeks later when Israel’s 10-month moratorium expired and building continued on land Palestinians envision as part of their future state.
Hamid Karzai is calling for a scaled-back US military presence at a time when the Obama Administration has deployed the largest contingent of US forces in Afghanistan. The new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has been described as a “national security imperative” by Obama but the Republicans argue that they need more time to study the implications of the treaty for the US nuclear posture.
And then came the North Korean sabre rattling. North Korea’s artillery barrage against a South Korean island, coupled with its rolling out of a new nuclear programme, presents the US with a significant strategic challenge in one of the most volatile regions of the world. When the US decided to dispatch the aircraft carrier USS George Washington — with 6,000 sailors and aviators and 75 warplanes — to the Korean Peninsula, it was not merely trying to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with South Korea but also trying to send a signal to China that Beijing needs to do more to contain Pyongyang.
The George Washington is being sent into the Yellow Sea, off China’s coast, which is the same area where strong Chinese protests led to the cancellation of US-South Korea military exercises in July. The US-South Korean military exercises are meant to demonstrate the strength of the alliance and America’s commitment to regional stability through deterrence.
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China has given no hint that it is rethinking its policy of almost complete support for the government of Kim Jong Il. After working in close coordination with successive US Administrations when it came to dealing with North Korea, China has in recent months moved to embrace Pyongyang more tightly and ignore Obama’s entreaties to rein in North Korea. China has strengthened its ties with Pyongyang in the last few months. It has hosted Kim twice already this year and backed his plan to pass power to his third son, Kim Jong Eun.
Beijing has refused to criticise Pyongyang for the Cheonan incident, jeopardising its growing ties with South Korea. China refuses to accept the conclusions of a joint inquiry that the Cheonan was indeed sunk by a North Korean torpedo and watered down the UN Security Council condemnation of the assault. At the UN, it delayed the release of a report that alleged that North Korea may have transferred ballistic missile and nuclear technology to Syria, Iran and Burma.
China has justified this support by pointing out that if the North Korean government collapsed, hundreds of thousands of refuges would flow over their boundary. But the Chinese Communist Party views the survival of the North Korean regime as a key to the maintenance of its own rule. North Korea is viewed as an important buffer between China and South Korea and American soldiers stationed there. In so doing, China has not only bolstered US-South Korean and US-Japanese alliances but has also damaged its own credibility as a responsible rising power. It has raised questions about China's willingness to engage in regional affairs at a level commensurate with its rising power status.
It is up to the Obama Administration to allay concerns about America’s decline by forcefully dealing with the North Korean issue. It needs to shatter the perception of America in retreat. In global politics, perception is indeed the reality and the longer this perception persists, the greater damage it will do to American credibility across the globe. While Beijing may relish the sight of a hapless Washington struggling to regain its nerve, it is a difficult sight for those who still view the US as a source of regional and global stability.
The author is with the department of defence studies, King’s College London