The recent visit of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to China, likely to be her last as America’s chief diplomat, failed to produce any breakthrough on any of the issues bedevilling Sino-US ties. Ms Clinton was on a ten-day, six-nation tour of Asia on her way to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit meeting in Russia. In fact, the Chinese leadership went out of its way to snub her. Ms Clinton’s appointment with Vice President Xi Jinping was cancelled at the last minute and there was no sign that China intends to be flexible on disputes in the South China Sea. Beijing not only refused to support the US on Iran and North Korea but continues to oppose American policies in Syria. China, along with Russia, has repeatedly vetoed the United Nations Security Council resolutions aimed at putting pressure on President Bashar al-Assad to end the violent crackdown in his country. Beijing has used the cover of non-interference in internal affairs to block western policies vis-a-vis Syria. Clinton tried to make sense of all this by suggesting that “our two countries are trying to do something that has never been done in history, which is to write a new answer to the question of what happens when an established power and a rising power meet.” In so doing she put her finger on the tectonic shifts that are changing the Asia-Pacific strategic landscape.
The US is looking for greater economic integration with the Asia-Pacific region, in particular through regional institutions such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. The US actually never left China, so the recent announcement on engaging in “strategic rebalancing towards the Asia-Pacific” is merely an attempt to signal to China that, despite Washington’s economic weakness, it remains a major player in the region, as well as to reassure nervous allies. Addressing Australia’s Parliament last November, President Barack Obama declared that he had “made a deliberate and strategic decision” that the US “will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future.” He went on to proclaim that the US “will allocate the resources necessary to maintain our strong military presence in this region. We will preserve our unique ability to project power and deter threats to peace.” The US followed this up with a new defence strategy that has led to 2,500 marines being stationed in Darwin, in Australia’s Northern Territory, and reinvigoration of bases in Thailand abandoned after the Vietnam War.
As if in response, China has hardened its position on territorial disputes in South China over the last two years. The islands which are under dispute in the South China Sea include the Scarborough Shoal claimed by China, Taiwan and the Philippines, and the Spratly Islands, disputed not only by these countries but also by Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia. China has established a military garrison and a legislative assembly on the Paracel Islands, also claimed by Vietnam, further exacerbating regional tensions. China has also blocked Philippines from gaining access to Scarborough Shoal.
The US wants China to negotiate a code of conduct to manage regional disputes with the Association of South-East Asian Nations, or Asean. China has no intention of doing so as it prefers to deal with individual states bilaterally. China was able to divide the Asean member-states in Cambodia in July on how to deal with the South China Sea disputes partly because of a growing perception that the US no longer has the capacity to balance China in the region. Japan has now decided to buy three of the disputed Senkaku islands southwest of Okinawa from the private Japanese owners for $26 million, and in response Beijing has despatched two patrol ships to “assert the country’s sovereignty” over the islands. The region is beset with a dangerously febrile nationalistic mood.
This is happening at a time of political transition in China. China will hold its 18th Party Congress later this fall when power will shift from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping who will be named General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. This once-in-a-decade leadership transition will have major implications for China as well as the rest of the world, though the exact contours of this change remain difficult to decipher at this point. Though usually very scripted, this year’s political transition has been marred by infighting and political instability over the fate of the Chinese Communist Party’s former rising star, Bi Xilai. Bo’s wife Gu Kailai has already been convicted of murdering British businessman Neil Haywood and was given a suspended death sentence last month in a speedier than usual trial. Domestic fragility in China also adds to the already tense climate in Asia at the moment. China’s overconfidence in its own ability to dictate the terms of behaviour in the region might cause it immense damage over the long term. The much-touted peaceful rise of China has already become a joke in the region and beyond.
It took the prime minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, to warn China that it should view the US not as a declining power but as a nation with the ability to innovate and bounce back. Speaking at the very influential Central Party School in Beijing, Lee underlined that the US “is an enormously resilient and creative society, which attracts and absorbs talent from all over the world, including many from China and the rest of Asia.” China would do well to take Lee’s advice seriously. Otherwise its hubris might end up wreaking much havoc.
The writer teaches at King’s College, London