Don’t miss the latest developments in business and finance.

High-flyers struggle

The information technology outlook has just lost some sheen

Image
Business Standard Editorial Comment New Delhi
Last Updated : Oct 20 2014 | 10:17 PM IST
The quarterly results of two top software high-flyers, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and HCL Technologies, have been put down by the markets - in contrast to those of Infosys, a recent laggard, which has received a thumbs up. What should be made of this turning of the tables, and do the latest market movements reflect emerging new realities? TCS clearly over-promised. After saying that it expected revenue growth in the 2014-15 to better the growth in 2013-14, it now says beating last year "looks difficult". As for HCL Technologies, its sequential revenue growth of 3.7 per cent does not match up to expectations from recently announced deals. This does not mean that the two firms have produced inadequate numbers. TCS' top line has grown sequentially by a hefty 7.7 per cent and year-on-year 13.5 per cent on top of the previous year's 34.3 per cent. As for HCL Technologies, it has said that it was happy it had delivered according to plan. In contrast, Infosys' revenue shines only on a sequential, not year-on-year, basis. The reality, at one level is, it does not matter how well or poorly you do in terms of standard measures; what does is how well you meet the market's expectations - that is, analysts' expectations.

But the reaction to the results does mark a logical turning point and captures some of the imperatives for the near future. Recent market adulation for both TCS and HCL Technologies stocks had known no bounds. Things had to come down to earth sooner or later and being able to deliver spectacular results endlessly is as difficult as it is to indefinitely sustain exceptional valuations. Another turning point is that the global demand outlook for information technology has turned a bit uncertain along with the International Monetary Fund cutting its global growth forecast for the current year. Demand for information technology service is more stable than overall demand, but if the latter falters, then one has to say goodbye to seeing another boom a few years down the line. It is just as well that the bubble that is internationally emerging in start-up valuations has not affected information technology stock valuations down the line as had done at the turn of the century.

As for Indian information technology firms, they now face heightened exchange-rate uncertainty. Analysts too often bandy around "constant" currency numbers. That is a piece of statistical fiction; annual accounts are written using current currency values. There are two ways of protecting a company against exchange-rate uncertainty. One is to extensively cover one's currency exposure. If you have speculated and not done so, don't come to the central bank crying, the Reserve Bank of India governor implied recently, while underlining the current low level of hedging. The other way is to grow the cushion of domestic demand. On this score, the National Democratic Alliance government's desire to vastly expand the scope of e-governance is good news indeed. The software industry must measure up to the occasion and deliver without mishaps in order to take advantage of the enormous potential ahead.

Also Read

First Published: Oct 20 2014 | 9:38 PM IST

Next Story