Hitting 'sixers' on a tricky wicket?

After reservation for the forward castes, the government may surprise the nation yet again on the Ram Temple and financial support to farmers and announce a universal income for the poor

The Narendra Modi government announced 10 per cent reservation for economically weaker sections barely eight weeks before the announcement of the next general election. Union Law Minister Ravishankar Prasad described the move as part of a tactical endgame: “In cricket, sixes are scored in the slog overs... when the match is drawing to a close, sixes are struck. If you have a problem with that, you must realise that this isn’t the first of the sixes. Many more are on the way.”

Is there a sense of desperation pushing Prime Minister Modi to hit ‘sixers’ at the fag-end of his tenure?

It is believed that the BJP’s internal assessment shows that the party may not get more than 164 seats on its own in the general election – a loss of 118 seats from its current strength of 282. If that be the case indeed, major losses are expected in Uttar Pradesh where party may get only about 35 seats compared to the 71 at present. The BJP’s tally is also expected to go down in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Delhi and Uttarakhand. Although party expects gains in Odisha, West Bengal and the North East, the numbers are not expected to cover the deficit in UP.

The situation will be even tighter if the allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are included. Except for the Janata Dal (United) and the Nagaland Democratic Peoples’ Party, none of the others are expected to increase their current tally. In fact, the Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali, Lok Janshakti Party and Apna Dal are expected to perform worse than in 2014.

The BJP could induct new allies into the NDA. Potential pre-electoral allies include YSR Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal and the Mizo National Front. Those who could support or join the NDA after the elections include Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Bjiu Janata Dal. Of these, only YSR Congress and TRS are expected to better their 2014 performance.

The Congress on the other hand could increase in strength from wins in MP, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Assam, Haryana, Andhra, Karnataka and Uttarakhand. Its present strength may go down in West Bengal and Mizoram. Its allies in the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham, Rashtriya Lok Dal, and Nationalist Congress Party are likely to accrue strength. But others like the Assam United Democratic Front and Rashtriya Lok Samata Party are expected to shed weight. Others like the Indian Union Muslim League and Revolutionary Socialist Party in Kerala, NCP in Lakshadweep, and Swabhimani Paksha in Maharashtra are expected to retain their current strength.

The Congress-led alliance can hope for a significant increase only if it expands – either before the polls or even afterwards -- to include the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, Trinamul Congress, Telugu Desam Party, Aam Adami Party, Peoples Democratic Party, CPI(M) and CPI, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Musalmeen.

Without expanding alliances both the NDA and the UPA are estimated to win about an equal number of seats touching about 200. So the key for both is to win new allies. Once again it is understood that it is the expanded UPA that could race ahead. The expanded UPA could be up by about 96 seats, taking its overall tally to 296 while the expanded NDA might go up by only about 45, i.e. to 245, well short of the half-way mark of 272.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses on the second day of the two-day BJP National Convention, at Ramlila Ground in New Delhi. (Photo: PTI)

The estimates going around, however, do not take into account the positive impact of the loan waivers announced by the Congress governments in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and the negative impact in BJP governed states of UP and Maharashtra of the distress among sugarcane growers whose unpaid dues stand at Rs. 11,000 crore.

The BJP’s performance in Bihar and UP may also be affected by the 10% reservation for the general category, because the Other Backward Castes and Dalits could interpret it as a tilt towards the upper castes. The Modi government’s bid to implement the Citizenship Amendment Bill may also dim the BJP’s prospects in the north-eastern states.

Uncertainty will also dampen the enthusiasm of cadres for polarising voters through communal violence. Legal proceedings in the Gujarat riots of 2002 in the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2014 show that the consequences can be long drawn.

After reservation for the forward castes, the government may surprise the nation yet again on the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and with the Reserve Bank of India preparing to open its coffers for the government, the government may yet give assured financial support to farmers and announce a universal income for the poor. After concessions on Goods and Services Tax regime to small businesses, the finance minister could offer sops to the middle class by increasing the upper limit of tax-free income and enhance tax savings schemes.

The coming weeks could also see the unleashing of government agencies on political opponents to foil their allying together. Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav has been raided by the Central Bureau of Investigation but is unlikely to be the only one targetted.

Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, have been served tax recovery notices for nearly Rs. 100 crore by the Income Tax Department. If the court permits and the recovery is implemented, then both would stand disqualified from Lok Sabha contests for non-payment of income-tax dues. The BJP is purportedly divided about the consequences of such a move with some in favour of going ahead while others arguing that this could generate public sympathy for the Gandhis. Besides it may usher Priyanka Gandhi into politics. Her youthful charisma and sophistication along with public sympathy for her family could create problems for the relatively aging leadership of the BJP.

Though the BJP’s poll analysts seems to think that the odds are stacked against the party at present the situation is not seen as irreversible. The PM, his minister has announced, is just warming up to hit a series of ‘sixers’. But time is short and there are only a few balls left to bowl.

The writer is a journalist based in Delhi. He tweets @bharatitis